If the high levels of employment aren't kept up with the high levels of productivity gains that we have been making, (the Fed) will probably need to do something pro-active and that would probably mean 25 basis points now and then something in the first quarter of next year.
I think the fourth quarter is going to be great, ... We just don't have signs of it yet.
Outlook statements for the first quarter are the best that we've seen in some time, but the question is, how much of that is already baked into the market?,
Some major companies that drive this economy have been talking about a better fourth quarter and better first half of next year, ... It's not just predicated on easier interest rates.
The season started upbeat and that was terrific. That helps the overall consensus that the second quarter (reports) will be rosier.
The second quarter is lining up to be another good quarter but people are looking ahead to the third and fourth quarters. Barring any major upsets on the earnings calendar I'd say the market is pretty range bound.
Investors are starting to discount the second quarter and price in growth in the fourth quarter,
The fourth quarter is when we'll see the impact of rising interest rates, higher energy prices, ... I would say eBay is the biggest piece of the problem this morning. It's a household name and it's adding to the sentiment we're not going to have the best of fourth quarters.