Bob Schnorbus Quotations

We're sort of seeing an orchestrated slowing of the economy. But what we're not seeing is a slamming on the brakes.

We had been projecting an (annual) sales rate of 16 million vehicles in September. If I take out a third of sales for only a two week period, you still come out with an eye-popping 13.3 million sales rate; 13.3 million is about as low as sales ever get.

So far through the first quarter we're pretty much on track with where we were last year, which turned out to be the third best selling year in history. However, it's still difficult to know if the big incentives that were implemented last year and pushed some monthly sales to near record levels will return and have a significant impact on the remainder of the year.

Simply put, if the '03 had high incentives earlier this year before the clearance started, then the '04 are likely to have it sooner rather than later. The automakers want to give the '04 a trial period to see how they move without incentives. But they won't wait long, maybe only a month.

I wouldn't yet rule out the chance we could be as good as last year. It depends on how things turn around now that the uncertainties of the war have played out and how aggressive the automakers continue to be through rest of the year.

If we get a big kick start to the quarter with a strong April, that could offset us being a bit weaker than we expected to be in the first quarter.

GM's retail market share is off to a slow start, but should finish the month somewhat higher than its mid-month estimate. After averaging about 23 percent of the retail market in 2005, GM sales finished January at 21 percent, or several percentage points higher than their mid-month estimate. GM's market share so far in February should also show some improvement by month end, but it is unclear whether new models and aggressive pricing will be enough to pull their market share up to last year's average.

GM's market share ... should also show some improvement by month end, but it is unclear whether new models and aggressive pricing will be enough to pull their market share up to last year's average.

I think the incentives are going to continue to be necessary. If you don't play the incentive game, you'll lose market share. At least in the first half of the year, even in the best case scenario you're just coming out of the recession, you'll need the support of incentives to maintain sales.

March, in my view, will be interesting. It'll be the first real test of the new chairman.

I think incentives have been a concern for some time now as they impact margins. With GM pushing hard on incentives to boost their volume, it's pulling everyone kicking and screaming into the game whether they like it or not.

Dwindling 2005 inventory levels and rising gas prices have caused a significant drop in full-size SUV and pickup sales.

They might want to (pay more) in the short term to avoid a strike. But if they're spending money now to gloss over the hard decisions that Delphi needs to make, they're only going to compound their problems when their turn comes up.

At least some of the problem is the artificially high sales last year, which is making this year's sales look a lot lower than they should.

Consumers are going to increasingly weigh the importance of fuel efficiency. But if they need, in their minds, an SUV, they are going to find a way to stay in that vehicle. They'll still look for big engines, towing capacity, cargo space.

The general consensus (on 2004 sales) is 17 million. If manufacturers come on strong with incentives, it'll easily be 17 million. If they pull back -- and there's been a lot of discussion of them pulling back -- it could be 16.5.

The current incentive levels are not quite as high as they were at the end of last year. In the sense they have been higher, they probably could go up going forward. The price pressure are obviously going to remain very intense. But that said, they're not going to rise dramatically. They're already very good.