Carl Gomez Per Quotations

Today's retail sales report does not alter, in any way, our expectations for the Bank of Canada to continue lifting rates up to a more neutral level of four per cent by the end of April.

We think the bank has left the door open for a pause in October, but a rate hike would follow in December. That would take the overnight rate to three per cent by year's end.

With higher auto prices helping to offset the usual price discounting seen in other categories like clothing in December, the annual rate of core inflation is expected to move up to 1.7 per cent during the month.