Carol Thorp Gas Quotations

Prices went up throughout Southern California this past week, but not at as rapid a pace as we've seen during other gas price spikes. It's likely that increases will continue for at least the next few weeks.

Prices remain on the rise but there is hope that we may be nearing a peak. Wholesale gas prices have averaged about $2.60 per gallon for the past week. Taxes add about 60 cents to that, transportation and dealer profit is another 5-10 cents. Prices in the L.A./Long Beach area could peak at $3.25-$3.30 by mid-May then they could decline after Memorial Day.

Investors have been climbing a wall of worry because of uncertainties about political stability in Iraq and saber-rattling in Iran. Those worries have sent crude oil futures to record levels and gasoline has followed.

The month-to-month gas price hike was driven primarily by increasing oil prices and speculation over adequate production. Higher gasoline and oil inventories have eased these concerns. However, when gas stations begin to sell the more expensive summer blend fuel in March, prices may start to increase again.

Motorists might seen prices stabilize over the next week or two, but that could only be a temporary pause. Upward pressure on gas prices will increase in February due to reduced production as refineries rush to finish the changeover from producing winter grade to summer grade fuel before the March 1 deadline.

Motorists have not seen the end of price increases. Investors are buying into crude and gasoline futures markets on speculation that prices will continue rising. Retail prices still have not caught up with wholesale price increases. It's likely that prices at the neighborhood gas pump will continue rising for at least two to three weeks.

Californians use 2 million gallons more of fuel every day than we produce in the state. Oil companies have to buy gas from other sources just to keep even with demand. If every motorist were to save two gallons every week, that would put our demand more in line with our state production.

Southern Californians have reduced their driving significantly in the past couple of months. Additionally across the nation, demand for gas is down 2 percent from this time last year.

Nationally, production is down and demand is up compared to last year. In addition, many regions of the country are having trouble getting sufficient supplies of ethanol, which is used in new formulas for gas. Uncertainty about supply has lifted gasoline to near-record prices on the spot market and that filters down to the neighborhood gas pump.

We don't know if that's going to cause some people to change their minds. Historically when gas prices have gone up, people have not changed their minds.

Gas prices in most areas began heading back up on Monday after dropping for about three weeks. Traditionally, Southern California has experienced gas price spikes during the spring, and oil industry analysts believe this could be the beginning of another one.

Gas prices dropped at a slightly slower pace than the prior week, which can be attributed to level crude oil prices and the increased demand over the holiday weekend. However, analysts tell us there is still some room for prices to drop in the coming weeks.

Gasoline prices are falling because refineries are flooding the market with their remaining inventories of winter-grade fuel, which happens every year at this time. The slight downward trend should continue for a couple of weeks. Refineries begin shipping summer-grade fuel on March 1st. After then, motorists can expect to see prices turn upward again.

Wholesale gasoline prices have dropped across the country and West Coast gasoline inventory is strong. That actually led to a slight decline in pump prices in the last few days, although overall averages are still higher than at this time last week. However, oil industry analysts expect wholesale prices to start heading up again once the more expensive summer-grade fuel starts going on the market at the end of February.

We're in the time of year when steep price increases are common, but this year prices are being boosted by speculation about whether there will be sufficient gasoline supplies for later in the year. It may be several weeks before a clear picture develops on the nation's gasoline production, but in the meantime, prices could climb to near $3 per gallon.

The relationship between supply and demand is relatively balanced in California, so normally we should see stable prices. However, speculators in oil and gasoline markets have kept prices high, and that has filtered down to local gas pumps. The trend for higher gas prices is expected to continue for the next several weeks.

Over the next few weeks we'll be up to where we were before Hurricane Katrina, and that's going to put more gasoline on the market. We think that will cause gas prices to start coming down over the Memorial Day weekend.

Refiners are selling off all supplies of winter grade fuel in advance of next Tuesday's deadline. That has put extra supply on the market, sending prices lower. Motorists can expect to see prices stay near current levels for a couple of weeks. After that, with the extra winter grade supply used up, motorists should expect more upward pressure on retail gas prices.