The Iranians shouldn't be underestimated. If they were to cut supply in protest, there's really not enough capacity to absorb the loss of their exports.
Lost refining capacity in the Gulf of Mexico and problems in France are a short-term weakness in crude.
It seems that crude is suffering because there's little capacity to refine crude. We are missing so much refining capacity now.
The Nigerians indicated capacity could be back on line next week. That's could, not will, and the reality is we could be missing those half million barrels for some time yet.
Oil production is pretty close to capacity at the moment. The market is going to be very jittery until the Iranian issue is resolved.
Let's not forget that refining capacity in the U.S has been severely knocked out by the hurricanes, which hit the Gulf Coast in September.