When the oil market notices that China is back, and remembers the fire that China's exploding oil demand lit under prices last year, the 'China factor' alone should be sufficient to floor near-term prices.
OPEC has been extremely accommodative in its policy in the last one and a half years.
Refiners are exhausted, like runners in mid-marathon. They've been pushing very hard since last year. As a practical matter, these things have limits. If you push too hard, capacity drops.
The approaching hurricane season reminds us of the utter devastation that Hurricane Ivan caused when it hit the Louisiana coast last year.
We had a much lower-than-expected build in natural gas supplies in the U.S. last week and this is also adding to general nervousness.