We did OK for the first half of the month and then faded out -- a lot of the economic data in the last few weeks have been a little discouraging. It's kind of a sour way to end a good quarter but not too bad for the month.
I would say in the next few weeks we can kind of grind in place, maybe a little to the upside. Maybe we'll get through the pre-announcement period without too much trouble, and then we'll get into third-quarter earnings in October, and they should be mostly in line.
We're drifting, and we're probably going to keep drifting for the next few weeks. But that's OK, there are positive developments out there. Oil prices seem to be under control, and I'm more encouraged about the second-quarter earnings than I have been in a while.
We've had moon shots over the last few days, so this is natural. The market is digesting a lot of the gains it has made. The important thing is there is an asset allocation shift that has followed through from yesterday, with people getting out of bonds and into stocks.
I'm encouraged. You get a strong rally for a few days, a couple of days of selling so people can take some profits, then new buyers come in at the lower level. That's the classic definition of an uptrend.
I'm maybe more optimistic for the end of the year, but for the next few weeks, I think we are still in these treacherous waters. We're just going to have to grin and bear it, and then maybe we'll see a run up in November and December.