Edward Meir Markets Quotations

It remains to be seen whether this latest really will be upstaged by this week's EIA inventory reports. We think not; the markets are grappling with three simultaneous geopolitical hotspots right now, increasing the odds that at least one -- if not all three -- of these situations will override the potentially bearish consequence of an inventory increase.

The Nigerian news would typically not get much of a market hearing given the modest amounts usually involved and the relatively short-lived nature of disruptions. However, given the potential crisis with Iran, markets are moving higher on just about any news that entails a possible supply pinch.

New money may not enter the markets with the same vigor as has been the case in the past, especially if growth in the U.S. shows signs of slowing on the back of steadily rising interest rates.

The prolonged drama probably explains why markets have not done much of anything in response to the news. Participants have perhaps concluded that things will take a lot longer to come to a head -- if they do at all.

We maintain our general view that these markets have to be given some respect given the fact that we still have sizeable outages going into Q4.

While fundamentals are tight in several of the metals, they cannot justify current valuations. Markets are, instead, held hostage by the growing amount of investment and speculative money out there that is increasingly finding its way into commodities.