Gary Thayer Quotations

The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price deflator was revised from 0.7 percent annual rate to 1.0. That's still very low, but it was revised upward instead of downward. There is possibly some building inflationary pressure, but it's still very benign.

We're still seeing a strong economy, ... shows that we still have very good job creation. I think it's very encouraging and a positive thing for American business.

We're still in a seasonally weak period of year, where companies are trimming workforces. It weighs on people's minds when they hear about companies cutting back.

We were anticipating that we could see a little bit of an improvement in October because the rebuilding after the hurricanes appears to have started and energy prices have stabilized, but it appears that it will take a little longer for consumers to feel better about things.

We've seen, over the past seven months or so, orders stabilize or improve slightly, compared to a big decline last year. Orders are rising relative to inventories, and that's a positive sign for capital spending.

Now that we're in a more open economy, and there's a lot more opportunity to get goods from overseas, if manufacturers are operating at full capacity, there's less likelihood that somebody will bid up prices at a domestic producer if they can get it somewhere else.

Policy-makers have been worried that rising energy costs could lead to higher prices for other things including higher wages and compensation, but it looks like companies are keeping their employment costs in check.

I wouldn't disagree with some of the things he said, but I don't know why he said those particular things at this time.

If we hadn't heard from Greenspan last week that the Fed is still worried about an uneven recovery, we might be more upset about these numbers. But Greenspan is concerned that these retail sales numbers could falter later on so these numbers probably won't have that great an impact.

If we'd had a substantial decline in the dollar against the Chinese currency we'd have probably seen a substantial rise in the price of some of the items that we buy from China.

Growth is still at a healthy level. There is no major slowdown.

He's basically expressing the concerns that a central banker normally expresses at this point in the economic cycle, and that is that there are reasons to be cautious, ... Trading Places .

Historically, when we see confidence decline, we have to watch and see if it shows up also affecting spending. We'll be watching closely to see ... whether the decline in confidence is more of a psychological factor or a real factor affecting spending.

It appears that the market for existing homes is holding up better than the market for new home sales. We are still concerned about the housing market cooling off.

I think it's good news for the economy. When you take away the GM strike and average last month's figures with this month's, you see employment growth at moderate levels, which is good for sustainable growth.

I think the headline number is a bit misleading. It doesn't suggest that the economy is in trouble. Consumer durables production is looking solid, so it's looking like there's still going to be strong first quarter GDP growth.

I think we're close to a peak in the unemployment rate. The upswings in manufacturing and non-manufacturing show we're close to it now.

I think we're close to a peak in the unemployment rate, ... The upswings in manufacturing and non-manufacturing show we're close to it now.

I think what he's concerned about is that the economy is on a good, healthy trajectory and if we do see some upward pressure on inflation somewhere down the road that that could cause the economy to heat up a bit.

Overall, confidence is still at a healthy level, up from where it was a year ago, but we did pull back a bit from the three-year high that we saw in June.

Looking back, it is understandable why the Australian and New Zealand currencies peaked in early 2005. That was about the same time that the demand for crude oil also started to moderate.

It does show consumers are in a buying mood,

It is encouraging that consumers are taking the negative things that are happening recently. Possibly the employment situation is outweighing other concerns.

Manufacturing is expanding, but not as broadly as in November. There was weakness in new orders and employment.

We got good news on inflation. People anticipate that with inflation still very low, the Fed will stay on hold for awhile.

Today's numbers show that consumers are not very optimistic about the economy. As a result, we will see consumer spending reduced until we see some relief on energy prices. If we don't get some relief, it looks like it will be a very weak holiday season.

Unfortunately, this is pre-Katrina data and may not reflect what we're likely to see in the next couple of months.

We're not seeing a lot of strength in goods and services right now. Sales are mixed. Some categories are doing OK and others are weak. We're not seeing an outright decline.

We probably won't see good (employment) numbers in the next couple of months because of the loss of jobs in the Gulf Coast region,

We still have a very weak world economy, despite the fact that the U.S. economy is still doing pretty good, ... We're seeing lower prices basically because there is more production out there than demand.

(The data are) suggesting the decline we've seen in the dollar over the last couple of years is not having an impact. It suggests the dollar may still need to fall to help narrow the trade deficit. But there's a risk to higher inflation if it does.

The decline in the prices paid component is good news. It looks as if we're seeing some moderation in pricing pressures, but not a significant drop.

We're still weak compared to where we were a year ago, but people are a little bit more optimistic about the future,

We've been seeing improvement in the non-manufacturing side since late last year. We're seeing more activity in the travel sector and others that were hit really hard last year after the terror attacks.

This supports the view that first-quarter economic activity is much better than what we saw in the fourth quarter of last year.

This suggests the government saw more real growth and less inflation in the quarter.

This report leaves the door open for a rate cut. There's still uncertainty out there, and as a way to sort of offset the uncertainty, the Fed will do more than it may need to do.

We think the economy is poised to slow down and that's good news for the Federal Reserve.

Yields have risen to levels where buyers looking for yields are willing to take a risk and buy.

The Philadelphia Fed business outlook index is still above zero in January, pointing to expansion, but the expansion is not quite as broad.

The PPI numbers generally have been running higher than the CPI numbers, showing that the higher production costs are not being passed on.

The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the nonpetroleum items and it looks like what we're still seeing is lower prices for many consumer items.

The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the non-petroleum items ... so it doesn't look like we have a major inflation problem outside of oil, which is good for the Fed.

The good news is that the inflation number was also revised down slightly but is still running higher than we saw a year or so ago,

We did see a big recovery in (producer) prices, but that was primarily in energy. Core prices increased only modestly and that's good news for the Fed.

We had seen the daily and weekly sentiment surveys show a small dip in consumer attitudes at the end of January. Some of that could have been related to the late January rise in energy prices.

Confidence is up again -- to the highest level in over two years. Consumers are feeling better not only about current conditions, but also about prospects for the future.

Energy prices are dropping, and consumer spending is holding up despite rising unemployment . These are encouraging things the market is recognizing.

Fewer people are worried about jobs right now, more people think that jobs are easy to get, and I think that's supporting confidence despite the high energy prices.

There's still a lot more inflation fear than there is inflation. There is still concern that the economy could generate inflation at some point but it still doesn't seem to be doing that. The Fed doesn't need to act more aggressively, but it doesn't mean that they won't.

The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.

Productivity numbers on a quarter-to-quarter basis are very volatile. The downwardly revised second-quarter numbers could easily be revised upward in the third quarter.

Companies may be paying more for raw materials and energy, but that is at least partially being offset by lower unit labor costs. That, I think, is likely to keep inflation contained.

This is probably going to keep the Fed concerned about inflation. If the housing market is still healthy, policy-makers will probably continue to raise interest rates.

This is probably going to keep the Fed concerned about inflation.

The upturn in confidence is an encouraging sign that economic conditions are stabilizing after the hurricanes. Lower energy prices are helping, but the upturn in employment is also a plus.

They're very good numbers. It's telling us the manufacturing sector of the economy is clearly in recovery. It looks like we had not only a strong March but an even better February than the government previously estimated.

This may help increase the inflation-fighting credibility of the Fed before we replace the chairman.

They're saying that some further policy firming may be needed, so it doesn't look like the Fed is seeing enough softness in the economy right now to warrant pausing.

It's a good number for the economy. Labor markets are improving, and that increases the likelihood that the economy will remain strong.

It's a good decline in prices for a change. It appears the big drop in energy prices during November has brought the overall inflation rate down considerably.

It's a little softer than expected, but it's not all bad news.

It probably doesn't mean we don't see another rate increase, but it suggests that the Fed is not behind the curve and inflation is not getting out of control.

It suggests the Fed is going to be watching closely to see if it is time to start taking back rate cuts. I don't think he is saying that is imminent, but his tone is that it might be sooner rather than later.

It suggests the drag on the economy from the trade deficit in the third quarter will not be as great and could help revise up third-quarter GDP a bit,

It suggests our manufacturers are adjusting to a new environment and will continue to grow, ... I think we have (already) seen the worst for manufacturing.

It's not really troubling. It's the first decline since September. Probably more important is the trend that's in place, which is upward. You would probably need to see three or more declines in the leading index to signal a problem.

It still shows a pretty healthy economy at this point. The manufacturing side of things and business spending will be good this year.

It just looks like manufacturing in the Midwest cooled off a bit in January, but remained healthy.

It looks like these numbers are consistent with a small decline in fourth quarter GDP,

It looks like the economy is still quite healthy and the Fed is probably following the appropriate course. The economy doesn't need low interest rates.

It looks like the economy is stabilizing after the hurricane-related stresses and we're heading into the holidays with an upturn in confidence that is encouraging and bodes well for the good consumer spending over the next month or so.

It looks like real spending was quite healthy for the start of the third quarter.

It looks like we will have about a half-million lost jobs from the hurricanes and we have now seen the lion's share of that.

It looks like consumers will be in a more giving mood, I don't think they will spend with abandon. There are still some tight financial problems for many people. We probably will see active shopping for bargains.

It looks like consumers are feeling at least better about the current situation. But I still think there is a lot of uncertainty about the future. The geopolitical news is not very comforting.

It shows the world central banks recognize the financial markets could use a little extra liquidity and support, ... Hopefully it will help restore confidence. A lot of people expected we would see some sort of coordinated effort.

It shows that consumers are feeling poorly about the economy, similar to what we've see in other recessions. Confidence is not as low as it was in the recessions of the early 1990s and early 1980s, but it is dropping in response to the worsening employment situation and the concern about the terrorism threat.

It speeds up the time that the Fed will probably think about raising rates and that's negative for fixed-income.

The October home sales data were strong, but we are seeing more moderate price increases for new homes suggesting that the housing market is gradually cooling off.

It's still a good reading overall, but not quite as robust as we've seen in the last several months. The encouraging thing is that the employment component increased again. We are beginning to see businesses becoming a little more willing to hire.

It's sort of a good news-bad news situation though, because if it gets out of hand, it can create other problems for the economy.

The big number is the employment number on Friday. If that number comes in weak for the third consecutive month, views on the Fed are likely to change significantly.

The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.

The bond market had been thinking that the weak economic numbers that we've seen would cause the Fed to think twice about raising rates,

The warm weather meant that utilities didn't have to produce the seasonal norm, which occasionally happens in the wintertime.

The values of the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar, as measured relative to the U.S. dollar, have been important signals of changing trends in global economic activity.

These numbers show the economy is indeed in recession, and they leave the door open for the Fed to cut rates again.

These numbers look as if there's no urgent need to raise interest rates much further.

These numbers are slightly dated, but they show that the inventory liquidation period is over, and that (the) drag on the economy is probably behind us.

It's not a big drop. It's reflecting the fact that the economy has improved this year, but not enough that consumers are convinced things are sufficiently better.

So core inflation is still rising slightly but doesn't appear to be a problem, and I think this is good news for the Federal Reserve . With energy prices declining it reduces the risk that fuel costs will be passed on to consumers.

The Fed will probably not put a lot of emphasis on this data and instead will be looking more at the economy after the hurricane.

The Fed will probably hold rates steady at a low level as long as they can. And I think as long as the unemployment rate is rising, they'll maintain a policy bias toward weakness.

The Fed will overlook the strength in the economy before Katrina and focus more on getting the economy back on its feet and probably will hold policy steady until we see how the economy is actually dealing with the shock of lost jobs and high gasoline prices resulting from Katrina.

The Fed may be looking at oil prices as a reason for the economy to falter and not a reason for it to overheat, so they won't want to raise rates yet,

The (February) manufacturing report was a little better than expected, showing continued growth in manufacturing.

Inflation is creeping up, but it's not out of hand. I think that's pretty important. The bond market may have discounted a worst-case scenario over the last couple of months on inflation, and now maybe traders won't have to worry about the Fed moving too fast.

If sales can be sustained at this level, that would help support housing construction, but inventory of new homes is still increasing. The housing market is cooling off, but not dropping sharply.

If unemployment continues to decline and the economy grows at an above-average pace ... I think they (the Fed) will be a little more concerned about bottlenecks.