Those of you who lived through the 1970s will remember that higher oil prices touched off a wage-price spiral that pushed inflation into double-digit territory.
Those of you who lived through the 1970's will remember that higher oil prices touched off a wage-price spiral that pushed inflation into double-digit territory,
This sector has been a key source of strength in the current expansion, and the concern is that, if house prices fell, the negative impact on household wealth could lead to a pullback in consumer spending.
Certainly, analyses do indicate that house prices are abnormally high --- that there is a 'bubble' element, even accounting for factors that would support high house prices, such as low mortgage interest rates. So a reversal is certainly a possibility.
I see no evidence of feedbacks from energy prices to wage bargaining. The risk, though, is that, without appropriate policy, we could see a repetition of the '70s-type dynamic.
I see no evidence of feedbacks from energy prices to wage bargaining, ... The risk, though, is that, without appropriate policy, we could see a repetition of the 70's type dynamic.
At this stage, wage and salary growth seems quite well contained, and I see no evidence of feedbacks from energy prices to wage bargaining,
Models used to describe and predict inflation commonly distinguish between changes in food and energy prices - which enter into total inflation - and movements in the prices of other goods and services - that is, core inflation.
A crucial responsibility of any central bank is to control inflation, the average rate of increase in the prices of a broad group of goods and services.
Uncertainty about sales impedes business planning and could harm capital formation just as much as uncertainty about inflation can create uncertainty about relative prices and harm business planning.
My bottom line is that monetary policy should react to rising prices for houses or other assets only insofar as they affect the central bank's goal variables - output, employment, and inflation.
Higher oil prices may be partly passed through to core inflation at least for a time,