Ken Goldstein Economic Quotations

The latest leading indicator readings suggest some slowing in the pace of economic activity through this summer.

The leading economic indicators suggest moderate growth into the fall.

The Leading Economic Indicators have been anything but consistent -- flat to declining from July through September, and recovering in October and November.

The leading economic indicators began to lose a little momentum before the hurricanes and flooding. Domestically, business investment appeared to be headed toward a moderate pace in the third quarter.

The Leading Economic Index suggests that this period of slower growth will probably continue for the next few months.

The Leading Economic Index, however, rose sharply in three of the last four months. That could be a signal of a faster pace this spring.

Consumer spending remains the mainstay of this weak economic recovery. With tax cuts enacted, the consumer is likely to continue hanging in there. But a real recovery, including a slowdown in layoffs and the opening of new jobs, is far more dependent on recovery in (business) investment than on stronger consumption growth.

The small but consistent decreases in the past three-month period certainly point to a second-half economic performance less robust than in the first half of 2000. With employment and income still rising, there will be growth, but not at the pace set earlier in the year.

Overall economic momentum is no longer firing on all cylinders. And hiring intentions this summer are suggestive that companies may not increase hiring until the economy regains more solid footing.

The flat pace in the leading indicators points to continued moderation in U.S. economic activity. This is reflected in indicators for manufacturing, housing, consumer, labor, and financial markets. The economy is starting to reflect the impact of growth restraints.

This could be a signal that the economy will continue to expand this spring before slowing later in the year.

The labor market indicators reflect a loss of economic momentum, even eliminating the impact of the storms and flooding.

The coincident economic indicators have been rising moderately but steadily in recent months, suggesting the economy is sustaining a relatively moderate pace.

The recovery in the leading index could indicate that the economy is poised for growth by late summer. There appears to be enough economic demand to end the slide in industrial production, though no strong rebound appears in sight.

The fact that the January number is back up to the higher level we saw in August 2005 indicates that the demand for labor is holding steady and seems to have weathered the hurricane and energy-related effects of last fall. The January online help-wanted ad volume is consistent with what we are seeing from the Consumer Confidence Survey. In January, consumers were more upbeat about current economic conditions, and they were especially more positive about the job market.

The economy has been on a little bit of a seesaw, where we have had a softer fourth quarter, perhaps (a) still somewhat soft first quarter, with some improvements certainly for the second quarter.

The economy is growing now, but not as fast as it did last year before the hurricanes.

There was cautious optimism a month ago that manufacturing declines might have been bottoming out, ... Now, in the wake of the attacks, economic demand seems likely to slow.

With slower hiring, and indications that hiring might remain soft in the months ahead, the economy could struggle, setting up a self-fulfilling prophecy.

That the index is starting to turn more positive is telling us to look for a better economic outlook overall as early as spring.

The overall Leading Economic Indicators began to edge down in July, suggesting the economy was losing steam this summer and would continue to slow down in the fall.