Rising business costs and uncertainty in many companies about price hikes is a major consideration now in how fast the domestic economy can grow, especially in the second half of the year.
begin to make way for a better economy this fall.
If the economy cools a little, the labor market may also cool. Even if energy prices were not going through the roof, the biggest road block would still be the cost of a new hire.
The two-month decline in the index suggests that the already-weak economy is likely to remain weak into next year.
The flat pace in the leading indicators points to continued moderation in U.S. economic activity. This is reflected in indicators for manufacturing, housing, consumer, labor, and financial markets. The economy is starting to reflect the impact of growth restraints.
The recovery in the leading index could indicate that the economy is poised for growth by late summer. There appears to be enough economic demand to end the slide in industrial production, though no strong rebound appears in sight.
This could be a signal that the economy will continue to expand this spring before slowing later in the year.
With slower hiring, and indications that hiring might remain soft in the months ahead, the economy could struggle, setting up a self-fulfilling prophecy.
There's nothing wrong with the economy right now. That's not the issue,
Overall economic momentum is no longer firing on all cylinders. And hiring intentions this summer are suggestive that companies may not increase hiring until the economy regains more solid footing.
The Indicators are pointing to significantly slower growth in the first half of 2001, ... The economy continues to cool off and there are now some job vacancies with no one to fill them. More recently, both businesses and consumers have become somewhat more cautious.
The economy has been on a little bit of a seesaw, where we have had a softer fourth quarter, perhaps (a) still somewhat soft first quarter, with some improvements certainly for the second quarter.
The economy is growing now, but not as fast as it did last year before the hurricanes.
The overall Leading Economic Indicators began to edge down in July, suggesting the economy was losing steam this summer and would continue to slow down in the fall.
The coincident economic indicators have been rising moderately but steadily in recent months, suggesting the economy is sustaining a relatively moderate pace.
They're saying the economy stinks this summer, for whatever reason, but their anticipation is that it will turn for the better.
High and potentially rising energy prices are one consideration in this outlook. Rising costs and questions about whether they will be matched by price hikes are also a factor in how fast the economy grows this spring.
With the price of a barrel of oil rising above $70, and with interest rates slowly increasing, the global economy isn't likely to be picking up steam soon.