Rising inventories are keeping a lid on prices. Inventories are back at levels we last saw in 1999, but the price is still a couple times higher. The market has been remarkably resilient because there are fears of supply disruptions.
Uncertainty and fear abound in this market, and thus outright short positions remain highly at risk.
This certainly highlights what the bulls have been trumpeting. It is not known whether any actual production will be affected. Uncertainty and fear abound in this market.
Prices are much higher on fear of possible further supply disruptions. Continued concern about the Iranian situation and new threats in Nigeria and primary drivers. There were no new reported attacks in Nigeria, just more threats.
Although the U.S. weather remains relatively bearish, the market is moving higher. There seems to be little fundamental reason for the move as Russian gas supplies to Europe are resuming. However, fear of a possible future disruption is probably a driver.
Crude hasn't been responding to fundamentals all year. I think crude has been $8 to $10 overvalued for some time and has been responding to the fear of what could happen rather than the reality of what is happening.
This market has moved higher on fear and sentiment and Bush may have succeeded in reducing some of the concern. Gasoline is getting whacked right now, which is pulling crude lower. His statements will have a psychological impact on the market but the physical impact is limited.