Oscar Gonzalez Suggest Quotations

Jobs are a lagging indicator, and other economic indicators suggest the economy is in fact on the mend. We still expect it will continue to improve through the rest of the year.

Today's figures simply reflect an economy still emerging from a recession; there's certainly nothing here to suggest inflation rising from the ashes. In terms of impact, it might as well be ancient history, especially now. The Federal Reserve is back to worrying about where inflation will be in six months, not where it was last month.

While improving consumer confidence probably suggests downside protection against a slump in spending, it does not suggest we will see spending take off. We still need a sustained improvement in the jobs market, including a significant decrease in unemployment with a solid increase in real wages.

Strong but moderating retail sales and improving productivity suggest an economy that should continue to grow while avoiding overheating, ... The reports would seem to make it less likely that the Fed will need to move again this year.

Higher oil prices and the stimulus coming from additional spending after Katrina both suggest that Fed would be on the side of raising rates.

All eyes will now shift to next week's employment report. The figures we've seen over the past few weeks suggest it will be quite weak. The report may be enough to push the Fed into giving the economy another shot in the arm at their next meeting.