Andreas Rees Quotations

We are a long way from a self-sustaining recovery,

People want to spend more but this may not continue into the future. For one thing incomes aren't rising and employment isn't increasing. That's why we think there will only be moderate growth in the months ahead.

There is a modest improvement in the labor market, but we won't get a significant increase in jobs. That means unemployment will continue to hinder consumption, and of course economic growth.

People are expecting that they will be paying for the restructuring of the social system, and that is probably showing up in the numbers.

These are very, very bad numbers. There is a risk that private consumption may have shrunk for a fourth consecutive quarter, which would be a new negative record.

It is unlikely that reform-minded politicians will have a lot to say in the new government.

It is time to say good-bye to an initially intended transition to a more flexible collective bargaining system and a reduction of non-wage costs for employers.

In exchange for getting the chancellery, the conservatives will have to make compromises in personnel,

In addition, they reduced debt heavily last year which makes them more flexible,

Households had to spend a lot more on energy in 2005, and that's reflected in retail sales figures. Private consumption won't improve enough to sustain the economic upswing.

However, a German job wonder is definitely not in the offing. We expect the current upswing to already lose some momentum in the spring.

The health of the German economy remains strongly dependant on the global economy.

The latest figure is a nightmare. The renewed drop in retail sales poses substantial risks to both private consumption and real GDP at year-end 2005.