Chris Rupkey Quotations

Unfortunately, I think they tried to fight the inflation dragon a little too long, and rejected the counsel of the markets which urged them to cut rates as early as November that year.

We're back to expecting a rate cut on December 11. Meyer changed people's thinking by essentially saying there's no limit as to how low (the federal funds rate) could go and today we're getting an added boost from the (weak) stock trade.

There is considerable momentum here that will not be easily slowed. This economy is strong, and it is likely to surprise on the upside.

Business capital spending is coming on strong and the timing of these equipment purchases could not be better. Business spending will take up the slack as the housing slowdown cools consumers' appetites.

Growth isn't fast enough that the Fed has to brake the economy, and at the same time it isn't slow enough that the Fed can stop and watch. Inflation pressures can still gain a foothold as the economy continues to take up slack resources.

Manufacturing production in the entire country is running flat-out at the moment.

While it sounds as if most members see that the series of rate hikes since June 2004 is close to the end, it's not over until the economy slows. The minutes are a little past their stale date. Commodity prices are soaring.

Expectations of Fed action have gone though the roof. The market is looking for two 25-basis-point moves and one 50-basis-point move before the presidential election.

We were due for a pullback in credit,

There is nothing at this point to suggest that Fed officials will pause.

The red ink was a one-month record in February, and the records are likely to continue to be broken this year. The spending side of the budget ledger remains out of control, despite some effort to constrain these expenditures.

The selling abated, prices stabilized and people decided the path of least resistance is up.

Prices received rising so much is the first sign that businesses have increased power to pass on these energy-price increases. Energy will shortly be a major factor in the inflation equation, and this is what the Fed is worried about, so expect policy makers to keep pushing interest rates higher.

As far as energy prices and core consumer prices, so far it is all smoke and no fire. Rising energy costs have not yet fed into the costs of other goods, despite many anecdotal signs that prices are being impacted.

This is not going to be the easiest Treasury refunding sale.

This budget number is way out there; it was quite a shock.

A lot of selling came in around 9 o'clock because Freddie Mac priced a large 10-year note, their benchmark security. Right at the pricing of that note, the Treasury market went down and it wasn't able to recover.

There was very strong demand -- off the charts -- from the indirect bid -- about 65 percent, bigger than the 55.6 percent at the 10-year note auction in November 2005.

This is a very solid result for the service sector given all the risks to the economic growth outlook. The services sector is the heart of the economy where most of the new jobs are created, so a strong number bodes well for the outlook.

They're not on the sidelines yet. The inflation pressures are immense at this stage of the business cycle.

It suggests that the industrial production setback reported for June is unlikely to last and that production geared up the very next month.

It's not like the deficits back in the Reagan years because the economy is much larger now, so theoretically we can handle this amount of debt.

It may come down to 59.5. This reading would not indicate a softer economy.

It may be just a matter of time before the public's inflation expectations start to rise. Commodity prices are soaring.

It's going to be volatile. The odds for a rate hike in June will go back and forth for the next couple of months.

consumer spending has not been dented by the hurricane-inspired rise in gasoline prices and fears of higher home heating oil bills.

Consumers are more optimistic during this holiday season, and retailers hope this means that they will hear the ringing of cash registers in what has been a lackluster sales period so far. This augurs well for a continued expansion of the economy next year.

That leads to expectations that the Fed is still going with its series of rate hikes.

Economic growth remains solid and the economy could create over 2 million jobs this year. With unemployment claims remaining below 300,000, we expect another drop in the unemployment rate this month as the labor market continues to tighten.

Stock losses are giving bonds some juice this morning; we're back to feeling that the economy is weak and that bonds are a buy here.

Is the soft-patch bond rally over? It's a tough call, but we don't think so, as the reasons for the soft patch, rising gasoline prices at the pump, are still there.

This is consistent with the idea that slack resources have been taken up in the economy. There is considerable momentum and this is the sort of environment where inflation pressures can spill over and actually cause an increase in the rate of inflation, so it is a bit early for them (the Fed) to lay down their saber.

The Fed is still going to be on guard in terms of monitoring inflationary pressures, but this has to be good news today.

I'm really more concerned that the economy is taking up slack resources. That could be a little bit worrisome. I think the Fed continues to raise rates.

Higher energy prices are not providing any big headwinds for the economy and inflation remains very contained,

Buyers may be eager to lock in rates now as mortgage rates are expected to trend higher. Many homes go on the market in the first days of spring, and this is the first real evidence that buyers are taking a fresh look at the market.

Cars seem to be pivotal in keeping the wheels of consumer spending turning and certainly this quarter is starting out with a thud.

All eyes will be on the jobs report. The Fed is still worried with inflationary pressures, and may very well not be done with rates. But as long as the economy keeps growing without a substantial pickup in inflation, we may see bonds falling and stocks rising.

The economy is creating over two million new jobs a year and these workers will need housing. Fears of a collapse in the housing market have been overblown.

The economy surprised on the upside and inflation was a surprise on the upside so (10-year Treasury) yields tested the level we hit last week which was 5.14 percent.

The curve should be flattening if the Fed is assumed to be still tightening.

The details of the GDP report may have given Treasuries a boost as the Fed's preferred inflation target, the core personal consumption expenditures index, was revised down to 1.7 percent from 2 percent for the first quarter,

The markets were prepared for Greenspan to end his final meeting with the funds rate at neutral. What they got instead is the statement that rate hikes still 'may be needed.' This was not music to the market's ears.

The market is on guard after Broaddus reminded us that the day of reckoning when the Fed raises rates is drawing nearer and the rebound in global stock markets is adding fuel to the fire.

The jobless claims number went up quite a bit, but the idea here is that because it stayed below 300,000 there's a good chance that the U.S. unemployment rate continues to fall.