This isn't the first time we've heard about the possibility of an end to the policy in March ... but the risks of that happening have increased a bit.
A dip to a one-month low could be quite an attractive level for exporters to buy the won.
With so many new members, it's hard to say whether the rhetoric the Fed has been using until now will stay the same.
There is support for the dollar against the euro, which is providing a cushion for the dollar/yen so we're not likely to see a nosedive in the dollar.
The market has been entrenched in range-trade for such a long time that people cannot see a reason to buy dollars at the higher end of the range or sell them at the lower end.
The market is just waiting for the consumer price index. If the figures are strong, market players are likely to buy the yen tentatively.
The market is dithering, because on the one hand we have the interest-rate gap, but on the other we have still large U.S. government debt.
Unless a big surprise comes out from the trade report, it may not cause much turbulence.
What's going to change after the BOJ ends the quantitative policy? Unless Japan's bank deposits start to pay interest rates of like 1.5 percent, Japanese investors will keep buying foreign currencies.
I think the yen will continue to fall for the time being. But later next year, things will change ahead of the U.S. mid-term election.
