We had all sorts of judgments about where the economy is heading before the hurricane. The hurricane alters our judgments.
The September 11 attacks pushed the U.S. economy into a recession that will be mild both in depth and duration.
At the same time, the yield curve is flat and actually has the potential to invert. An inverted yield curve has often been a precursor to a recession occurring within a year.
The rapid easing of monetary and fiscal policy this time around should enable the economy to return to positive growth more quickly than usual and with lower interest rates and inflation than during the 1990s expansion.
There is no honeymoon -- not in a financial system like ours, not in this country where people are free to take risks and reap the consequences.
If you look at the record, at how the U.S. has weathered shocks, we have a very, very resilient economy. Initial conditions matter.
You had to admire him. He had a very tough job to do.
The Federal Reserve has been going through a tightening cycle. Whenever the Fed tightens, whatever financial fragilities there are in the economy are going to get exacerbated.
