Harvinder Kalirai Quotations

We're starting to see positive signs that the Japanese business cycle may be moving around. The dollar-yen should trade lower in coming months.

We're seeing a benign neglect in terms of the weakness of the Japanese yen. There's little reason for the Japanese to be worried because it seems the lower the yen gets the bigger the support it gives to exporters.

We did expect a sharp deterioration of the trade balance. The real story on the trade numbers is that the import surge reflects very solid domestic demand.

There are very early signs of (a manufacturing slowdown), but I don't think they're conclusive enough to halt the Fed from tightening policy further, ... But I think, ultimately, with the economy running hot and inflation on a clear upswing, we see headline inflation moving towards and perhaps even surpassing 3 percent as we head into next year.

July was much stronger than expected, but when you factor in the revisions to June, there's only a 0.4 percent increase ... I think these numbers are very close to consensus forecast.

Manufacturing is recovering -- and the recovery, in fact, is accelerating.

With the Fed stopping, and policy elsewhere in Europe and Japan going in the opposite direction, it should be relatively positive for the euro and yen.

We got the spark from the PPI today,

We think the Fed is going to tighten by the end of August.

There are a few signs of cracks beneath the surface in the U.S. economy, starting with the weak durable goods and confidence figures last week, and now with the rise in oil.

With oil prices back near record levels, one can bet that the Brazilians are increasing ethanol production. This means less refined sugar and higher prices.

We don't think it'll be enough to halt a move at this month's FOMC meeting. We still look for the Fed go 25 basis points.

We don't think it'll be enough to halt a move at this month's FOMC meeting, ... We still look for the Fed go 25 basis points.

At these levels, the Australian dollar is looking attractive. A decline in U.S. interest-rate expectations is beneficial for Australia.

The trend is still toward wider deficits, so this is a concern for the U.S. dollar. I continue to forecast it lower.

The Australian currency may rise to US80c over the next month.

If you look back to 1994 when the Fed was hiking rates continuously, after every rate hike the Fed adopted a neutral bias. However, the tightening cycle continued until early '95, for a total of 300 basis points (3 percent). We are not looking for that type of tightening cycle this time, but nevertheless it does suggest that the neutral bias does not preclude further rate hikes down the road.

If the market begins to expect a more imminent end to the Fed's tightening cycle that would certainly remove the interest rate support for the dollar,

High commodity prices are boosting Brazil's terms of trade and leading to record trade surpluses. A favorable external backdrop and still high real interest rates should support the Brazilian real.

I consistently say the Australian dollar is heading higher. Commodities are at the start of a 15- to 20-year bull run.

This is one weak number in the context of an extremely strong economy. One data point doesn't make a trend,

The commodity story remains very positive for Australia. Relative to commodities prices the Australian dollar isn't overvalued.