Any possible move out of Treasuries by the Chinese will lead to a weaker dollar.
The honeymoon period is now really over. The world is really starting to pressure China. There will be appreciation pressure on Asian currencies.
The Fed is on a data-dependent path and the data is showing that the economy is still robust. There is still a lot of selling pressure.
Margins in China are razor thin and they may not be able to withstand much yuan appreciation. The export sector is vulnerable and the government is going to be very cautious in what it does and that's the message.
There is a lot of focus on the visit and understandably so. China has shown last year that it will give into significant outside pressure. It wants to do as little as possible and escape a protectionist fall out.
It's really the yen driving Asian currencies higher. Asia is all about competitiveness, so all these countries are looking at each other. Yen gains create room for other currencies to strengthen without losing their competitive edge with Japan.
