Typically, when commodity price estimates decline, so do the stocks. These are dangerous times.
We remain positive based on economic activity and E&P spending; we're also positive on 2007 but see some risk to E&P spending given the potential squeeze on returns (with) a possible moderation in commodity prices in '07. Visibility remains too good to worry too early, however.
The market doesn't give these companies much credit because it's a non-recurring event.
The weakness in natural gas prices, having fallen from an extreme of $15 a current $7.50 with (more than) 60% of the winter heating season already over, provides risk of a natural-gas-inspired 'bump' coming over the next two quarters.
It's hard for investors to believe oil stocks are worth investing in when the thing that drives the stock -- the commodity price -- is going to go down next year.
The industry has done well this year and commodity prices are up so high that no one thinks there is any substantial improvement to this year's level of activity.
Only four or five companies can do this in the world, and Halliburton is one. This has nothing to do with Dick Cheney.
News that the U.S. economy posted a weaker-than-expected 1.1% annual growth rate for the fourth quarter ... did not impact the oil-service stocks, which rallied by 1.8% (Friday) on the strength of better-than-expected quarterly results provided by Halliburton.
