The market is starting to prepare for some dour dollar news given that the Fed may be stopping (hiking rates) sooner than expected. I think all the good news may be behind the dollar now.
We're still in a range especially in euro/dollar between $1.17-$1.20 and any time it approaches the extreme ends of that range, the market corrects.
We're also seeing hedge funds taking advantage of thin market conditions as we often see as we get to the end of December. And so basically, that's why we get these whippy moves.
The dollar is stronger because of higher rates. Look at the bond market: it's been selling off with higher inflation fears and decent growth prospects. Also U.S. data were not so bad.
The failure to get a decisive vote in the German elections has left uncertainty.
I was in the camp that the Fed would pause, but there is nothing in anything any of the Fed members have said since the hurricane that indicates that the tightening cycle will be ending any time soon.
With this jobless claims number, I don't know what the final figure would be, but some economists may have to revise their payrolls estimates.
There's still grave concerns about the Japanese economy, which should prove negative for the yen.
