There are clearly upside risks around the consensus expectations for non-farm payrolls. As such, we would not be short the U.S. dollar over the next 24 hours.
We're back to 5 percent expectations and the dollar is recovering from its sharp slide of last week. The dollar has a little further to go.
Perceptions that Japanese interest rates would not be rising much appeared to reverse earlier concerns about an end to carry trades, which supported the Australian dollar.
Heightened inflation concerns could curb expectations of an easing from the Reserve Bank in the near term.
Heightened concerns over inflation risks in the U.S. and a consequent monetary policy-induced slowdown in economic growth are keeping U.S. dollar bulls in check.
While commodity prices have been rising Australia's interest rate spread has been narrowing.
While a hawkish sounding ECB will protect the downside for the euro in the short term -- support looks solid back to 1.2050 -- the fragile euro-zone economy argues against any interest rate increases for sometime to come.
The outlook for the Fed policy is clearly data dependent. I cannot see much downward correction to the U.S. dollar over the near term being driven by the data.
Today's BOJ meeting is a momentous event. The end of quantitative easing is near. The market doesn't necessarily believe it will happen today, but if it doesn't happen today it will be April.
The price action of the last few days does suggest a potential exhaustion in the dollar's rally,
U.S. economic reports serve to remind investors that U.S. economic growth remains solid, and as long as this continues, writing the U.S. dollar off could prove a costly strategy.
As such, currency moves are being exaggerated as small lumpy flows meet low liquidity.
A report that Nippon Life may shift away from U.S. dollar bonds has also supported yen buying.
The Reserve Bank may shift to a very mild tightening bias which won't be enough to support the Australian dollar while the Fed is pushing up rates.
There is typically a bounce in such purchases and if this proves subdued this year, many investors will conclude that a stronger Japanese economy and rising bond yields has moderated Japanese investor appetite for foreign assets. This scenario would see the yen a lot firmer.
It plays to the risks of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting rates earlier than its current track suggests.
It's more of the same, with the perception that carry trades are being unwound, and that Japanese bond yields rose further today probably added to that trend.
The news on the Australian economy has been far from upbeat. A benign consumer price index report will make the likelihood of another RBA rate hike disappear completely and this will potentially weigh on the Australian dollar.
The Australian dollar is being hurt by the rise in global bond yields, driven by expectations all three major central banks will be raising interest rates this year. This is hurting commodities.
It will be a tough first half of the year for the U.S. dollar with the Fed peaking with rates. The euro will do okay in the first half on expectations the ECB will tighten rates.
Around 75 cents is the sell zone, which is close to the 100-day moving average which provided a bridge too far over the past nine months.
The Fed is still going to 5 percent and therefore Australia's yield advantage will continue to narrow.
Higher metals prices and poor US dollar sentiment are offsetting a declining yield advantage for the Aussie, but we still see it expensive north of $0.7500.
The commodity price story has continued to be positive for the Australian dollar.
