John Silvia Quotations

We're expecting housing to be flat in the second quarter and a drag on economic growth in the third quarter and fourth quarter.

The reality is someone new is going to have to take over the job, and that new person is never going to have as much experience as Greenspan,

The outlook accounting for Katrina suggests growth will slow in both the third and fourth quarter due to slower consumer spending.

There are varying degrees of pain, but I don't think there are going to be many sectors that are not going to be impacted,

If we get increased demand, where is the supply coming from? Is it domestic, or is it imported from Canada, Latin America and Asia? That's still an open question,

If they don't move to a neutral position, the bond market will react negatively. If the Fed sits there and reiterates the same risk on inflation, the bond market is going to look at this and say the Fed is way behind the curve.

Growth looks solid. The problem is prices paid were up again, suggesting inflation pressures remain a concern.

I don't think you have to worry about a profit squeeze, but don't be surprised when people start shouting profit growth has peaked. A lot of companies that are seeing increased costs for raw materials will not be able to pass them on to the consumers.

He'll tackle the issues straight on, here's how I think how we got here, and here's you have to do. It'll be a real challenge to the politicians.

He'll keep up the Greenspan theme that the Fed's no. 1 goal is to keep inflation under control.

What you're seeing is that inflation is rising, ... It's still at a low level, but you know what the trend is. The question to ask is, How much is too much? At what point does the Fed say it's risen enough that we don't want it to go any higher? That's the difficult question to answer.

Going forward there is a sense of what are we trying to do here?

I would say the consensus is that the Fed goes to a neutral position on inflation.

Job gains were clearly below expectations and trend. There may be some bounce back next month in specific sectors. Slower job gains may also reflect the impact of higher oil prices and uncertainty in the spring.

I suspect that there's a little optimism that the Fed will signal that they are just about done, that they'll change their language from saying 'further policy firming may be' to saying it 'might be' needed.

It appears as if when consumers are faced with higher gasoline prices, they continue to spend their money,

I think it's just oil and optimism about the New Year. I think oil is the driving factor due to the warmer weather, but people are now looking for better than expected (fourth-quarter) earnings, better than expected retail sales number. There's a host of good numbers out there.

I think the market may sell off if there's no change in statement, ... It'll still be in the same difficult position, and it'll be disappointed that at this point the Fed is still pursuing goal of raising rates.

Labor costs were one of the key inflation concerns cited by Chairman (Alan) Greenspan in his latest testimony, ... Our outlook reinforces his concern.

I think it's way overdue for this administration to get tough on spending,

Our bet is that the impact, if there is a lot of damage, will get us $3-per-gallon gas in three weeks.

I think clearly the retail employment number is goofy. I think when that number is revised and we look back several months, we'll eventually see a gain.

I think if you had $70 oil, and the Fed were to continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation, that could cause a problem, ... I think there's a certain breaking point where that the price of energy alone is so high that it changes the psychology of both businesses and consumers. I think $80 would probably break the back.

I think futures are up because people are looking ahead to today's numbers and seeing that this economy continues to move ahead very nicely, no matter what problems a specific company may be reporting.

It does create a lot confusion and leads to different sides telling different stories -- not useful for making good public policy for the labor market,

I think Katrina's put the kibosh on this whole thing. You're going to lose so many jobs. It's going to take time to get this all back up.

I think Katrina's put the kibosh on this whole thing, ... You're going to lose so many jobs. It's going to take time to get this all back up.

Manufacturing sector employment is likely to improve in the months ahead. However, employment gains are likely to remain below par.

Manufacturing output is up, yet employment in the manufacturing sector is down. This result suggests that the firms are producing more in the U.S., but doing it with fewer workers.

Manufacturing growth has moderated in recent months, as the cycle moderates despite the hype about the new-found recovery.

Today's labor market does not fit the mold of the old models. The economy has recovered, and many of the old jobs are gone.

You have the Baby Boomers having the resources to buy condominiums, betting on the increase in value in the next six months, ... That activity may be the first to feel the crunch if the housing bubble bursts.

We are currently estimating first-quarter US real gross domestic product growth at 5.3 per cent and feel the risks are nearly uniformly stacked on the upside.

The rate of spending is less than you would have expected given the typical business cycle. Companies have made a lot of money, but if you look at equipment and software spending, this cycle is below the pace of the past three or four cycles.

The question is often asked: When will capital spending kick in? I answer that it already has.

We definitely have to figure that once tax filing season is done and tax refunds are cashed, we do expect consumer spending will slow down in the second half of this year, ... I don't see any way to fudge that (higher financing costs). You're not getting the employment gains or wage and income gains to offset that.

The decline in retail, leisure and transportation employment suggests rising business caution independent of any short-term storm,

The recession was largely centered in the manufacturing sector, and that is where we continue to see the strongest signs of recovery.

There has to be concern about sustainability of growth overseas; Japan is central to that issue, ... If people are looking at fundamentals, that's the only news they have to look at this morning.

We avoided the sticker shock from high heating bills in October because it was so warm. If it stays warm through Thanksgiving, we should have a good holiday shopping season.

Firms can't afford to offer much, and workers don't want to threaten to leave because of the job situation.

Firms are substituting capital -- particularly high-tech capital -- for labor. They're putting smart machines on the factory floor and in the service industry. That may explain why high-tech orders for capital goods have been going up, despite the fact that manufacturers don't seem to be hiring a lot of people.

You can no longer make the argument that there is a lot of excess capacity out there. The bias on inflation is a little bit to the upside and the Fed has to be careful about that.

The recent decline in crude oil prices took out a little bit of the peak in energy cycle. But the fundamental underlying price is higher than it was a year or six months ago.

We went from adding zero to 50,000 jobs per month up to adding 300,000 jobs per month. Now we're going to adding 200,000 per month. Going from 300,000 to 200,000 means we've gone from a recovery to an expansion.

As suggested by the orders data and the ISM survey, the initial stage of inventory replenishment has not been sustained, ... Slower growth ahead remains the most likely outcome.

An economy in neutral has started to move forward.

Employment markets were solid on the eve of destruction.

Employment and wages are stronger and therefore, consumer spending is stronger. Housing is slowing, but not as much as we would have expected, and the price of oil is so far not having that big an impact on the consumer.

There's got to be a lot of people out there with the cash for a deposit.

They are all pretty well-known. They have all played in Washington circles.

The secular trend of foreign private interest in U.S. securities is likely to continue as long as the U.S. economy remains strong.

People have adjusted faster than we expected to the way they use credit. This could be a signal that Christmas sales may be weaker than expected.

Defense spending tends to be very lumpy in terms of the quarter in which it hits. When you're in the middle of a war, you have to have goods delivered. But even if it had been 3.6, it would still be respectable growth.

That's going to be driven by the decision making of the new Fed chairman.

This is a surprisingly strong start of the year.

This is really the first post-NAFTA, post-WTO economic recovery we've ever had in this country. Because of the globalization of the labor market, the relationship between economic growth and employment is different this time than it has been in the past.

This good news supports the view of continued economic and employment gains with limited upside risk of rising interest rates.

They see these older cities that others may have passed over or thought for dead as environments where they can really create their own living space.

They (the Fed governors) are going to follow the jobs report. They're not going to be proactive. They're going to be reactive to the data,

A lot of people are figuring out the rates are going up and this is their last chance to get in there and buy homes.

Although production in the manufacturing sector may be stabilizing, and perhaps even moving higher, it is still too early to expect an improvement in employment.

It's a good number, and shows the economy continues to move ahead. What's great is that it's broad-based growth. All the basic components are showing forward motion, which is bullish going forward.

It's a good number, and shows the economy continues to move ahead, ... What's great is that it's broad-based growth. All the basic components are showing forward motion, which is bullish going forward.

It's good news for the economy, it's good news for the Fed and it's good news for corporate profits,

Consumer sentiment numbers are not reflecting economic sentiment, but political or social sentiment. If you were generating an economic forecast of spending from these numbers, you'd be totally wrong.

That means there is even more slack in the labor market than we had previously thought, giving the Fed even more reason to sit tight for the next several months.

Taken together, all this employment data provides the Federal Reserve with a measure of confidence to allow an increase in the funds rate,

Summer months can be particularly hazardous for forecasters, ... The timing of the end of the school year, seasonal hiring patterns and even weather can distort the monthly figure.

I've heard a lot of discussion the number could come out stronger. We have different models, and a couple of them have estimates where the number is higher.

They view the gasoline thing as temporary, and that's important because it didn't change their overall pace of spending. And that's a different kind of psychology. If it was a permanent increase in gasoline prices, then you would have expected consumers to make a more permanent adjustment downward in their spending and saving rate.

Once that confidence is lost, foreign capital stops flowing here. We'll have much higher interest rates and a negative impact on the economy.

On balance, I think it's the latter. In most businesses, inventories are in line with sales expectations.

The language will clearly be different. He'll give you a direct answer.

The Fed is going to look at this number and go full-steam ahead with 25-basis-point increases at its next two meetings to keep inflation in check, ... This is a pretty good payroll number for September. The market dodged a bullet with this report.

Inflation gains remain modest but they are gains. This suggests that interest rates will continue to rise as the Fed raises rates at the short end and bond traders discount trend growth and higher inflation at the long end.

Increased domestic demand is now being satisfied by supply from abroad. Fewer domestic jobs have been created than the average historical experience and predicted by the models used by policy makers.

If people perceive that all-time high as 'normal,' that's going to make it very difficult to convince them that jobs are plentiful.

If you get a storm like this every 20 years,

If you're going to set a price below market price, you're going to have to have some sort of rationing. I don't care if it's gasoline, prescription drugs or rent control in New York City.

In no way is that positive for the administration in the fall. We are going to be in Iraq at the same time. It's war and the (slowing) economy. That has to be negative for the administration.

But I don't think a prudent business or household manager can dismiss these energy prices today. We'll have to see what impact this all has on spending, employment plans and the rest.

Home buyers need something visible on-screen to surprise them, ... If it's the dollar gradually losing another 10 percent or mortgage rates creeping up 1 percentage point, that's not going to do it.

You could have dismissed it six months ago as a one-time hit,

This is more significant, ... it's a very big complication.

The evidence so far would suggest we're probably going to have a below-average employment gain in this recovery.

The economic recovery has legs -- those of a pony, not yet a quarter horse.

The market has not seen a negative sharp change in fundamentals, ... You haven't seen a sharp rise in interest rates or a signal that the money isn't there to keep lifting prices.