New vehicle demand in the US is poised to peak out sooner rather than later, which may weigh on demand for Japanese (automobiles).
New vehicle demand in the US is bound to peak out this year, which may slow output for Japanese (automobile) makers, although to a much lesser extent than US makers.
Overseas demand for autos, IT goods and construction machinery which had long supported the overall economic activity in Japan, is now set to slow down, while input cost for Japanese companies is rising.
Exports have maintained a relatively high level of growth because the decline in exports of information technology products has bottomed out -- the key factor which had sent the Japanese economy into a lull,
Export demand is really solid now. Japan can count on overseas demand as long as global economic conditions remain favorable.
But since such reconstruction demand will weaken sooner or later and demand for new vehicles in the US is largely believed to fall this year, I must say there may be some downside risk going forward.
What we are now witnessing is the start of an adjustment in land prices that have fallen far beyond reasonable levels.
Due to lingering reconstruction demand in areas that were hit by hurricanes last year and brisk demand for Japanese cars that have better fuel efficiency, exports to the US are likely to be solid until around mid-2006.
The trade surplus will continue to shrink because of higher oil prices and sluggish exports. The direct effect of high oil prices on Japan is negligible and domestic capital spending is strong which is also causing imports to rise.
A deficit because of the Lunar Year holiday is a blip and isn't a concern for the economy. While strong domestic demand is fueling import growth, which partly led to the deficit, it's a good thing because it signals resilient demand.
There is uncertainty over the trend of imports of IT (information technology) goods in the US, where IT investment is running at a historically high level,
As Japanese companies can no longer absorb the entire negative impact of rising basic material prices with revenue growth, corporate profit trend will slow down further going forward.
Because male spending is really the slowest to pick up, a recovery there is a strong sign that the overall economy is doing very well.
The impact on the economy isn't really that big. The main impact is that of the higher costs on corporate profits.
The effects of the wage hikes will be minimal as companies are cutting back on the number of jobs on payrolls, relying more on part-timers.
