Given the relative weakness of the (jobs) data, the dollar bullishness that we are seeing at the moment should be limited.
Going into the Jan. 31 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, a lot of people believe that with oil prices picking up, the Fed may be more neutral in their comments.
Overall, the headline figures are solid. January inventory figures are still on the path for solid growth in the first quarter.
We had an extremely bad current account deficit number this morning. Trade is going to be a very big focus this week. The huge number that we had for the fourth-quarter deficit brings it even more to the forefront because now we got clear structural deficiencies.
We had an extremely bad current account deficit number this morning.
Those comments, along with other factors, pushed the dollar lower.
We're not that anxious in terms of punishing the dollar ahead of the meeting.
We primarily see dollar strength because we're expecting one to two more rate hikes from the Fed. All that should be supportive.
Trade data is a little better ... but I think the dollar rally should be limited as the prospects for the trade deficit still aren't very good.
You have jawboning from European officials and a lack of concern from U.S. officials. So the market is really confused with what it wants to do with the euro,
At this point, the market is likely to consolidate and look to next week's trade balance and retail sales data to determine the direction of the pair for the near term.
Euro/dollar longs and shorts are practically one-to-one right now, which indicates how indecisive the market is,
Despite the weak GDP report, fed funds expectations for a March rate hike actually ticked higher to about 76 percent because of the rise in the core PCE price index.
It's extremely bad and this is bearish for the U.S. dollar. This will definitely shift expectations more for a 4 percent Fed funds rate as the last hike we'll see as opposed to 4.25 percent.
It's extremely bad and this is bearish for the U.S. dollar, ... This will definitely shift expectations more for a 4 percent Fed funds rate as the last hike we'll see as opposed to 4.25 percent.
It's more the flushing out of dollar shorts.
Dollar bulls have full control and are taking the data in stride.
In our opinion, the market should be thankful that we avoided a possible surge in volatility which could have happened if President Bush picked a more unknown candidate.
The dollar is rallying as foreigners snapped up a larger-than-expected amount of U.S. assets.
