We believe that Alcoa's earnings will begin to reflect the strong aluminum price beginning with its 1Q 2006 earnings - particularly since several of the headwinds that affected Alcoa over the last two years, whether it be input costs or foreign currency, have stabilized.
Control of all three of these projects under one management team should lead to a more rational market.
The balance sheet of all these companies to put it mildly, have gone through a cleansing.
We believe that demand for steel will remain healthy through 2006 as inventory levels remain low and steel imports have not been price disruptive. Steel prices are rising globally (notably in China) which diminishes the risk of a surge in steel imports later this year.
We are upgrading Alcoa to overweight from neutral and raising our 2006 EPS estimate to $2.15 from $1.88 because the market seems to be ignoring the strong aluminum price and the impact it will have on Alcoa's earnings and cash flow in 2006.
There was no rationale to try to consolidate and compete.
