Michael Gregory Quotations

There is no question that the economy is slowing, but it's not exactly shrinking, either, ... We are seeing the first tentative signs of slowing, but you have to remember that we are starting at a very high base of growth. The Fed will still err on the side of caution and restraint.

We're seeing signs that consumers are starting to feel the impact of persistently high gas prices. As prices stay high we're going to see the impact broaden from discount to more mainstream retailers.

Much of the decline is disappointment among investors who were burnt quite badly in 1999 where they thought things had bottomed. You'll have to see some tougher talk from the ECB, more robust economic data from Europe and eventually a rate hike.

Mortgage equity withdrawal (which keys off prices and rates) is going to ebb substantially and pull consumer spending growth down along with it. When it does, the Fed will pause.

But against the backdrop of improvements in commodity prices, the fact the Canadian dollar has been rallying and the long end of the market had already priced it in, they thought, 'Listen, our rates should be below U.S. rates. Our inflation is lower and we're well behind in the economic cycle.'

If it's the case that certain kinds of trade are not done with Cuba right now because they're in U.S. dollars, then that's fine -- changing to the euro might help that. If it's a case where using euros to conduct more liberal trade with Europe, then that's certainly of benefit, as well.

Underlying demand in the U.S. economy remains solid, irrespective of the stock market. We are looking at growth in domestic spending that will probably exceed what we had in the fourth quarter.

I think a lot of people's perceptions are still affected by the bubble years. If you take away that four-year period when the unemployment rate was lower, you have to go back some 32 years to find an unemployment rate lower than it is right now.

People are infatuated with candles, they're using them more than ever,

Over the past several weeks we've moved from pricing in one further move by the Fed to odds favoring two moves.

Our last two fires had smoke detectors, but no batteries, ... We're praying to get the word out (about smoke alarms).

The question for the Fed is what inflation will look like in 12 to 18 months. The U.S. economy is still growing fast enough to use up slack that's out there in the economy, and that could present an inflation threat down the road.

This surprise rise in no way alters the broader view that the housing sector continues to cool.

With business outlays solid and foreign demand picking up, this will likely keep the Fed in the tightening game through the first half of the year.

Exports should find further support from the pickup in global economic growth.

Factory activity likely cooled slightly in December, but remains robust.

There is a lot of momentum in this economy. Consumer spending is continuing to march along, business spending is solid and you have a pick up in foreign demand.

Do they really want to end the party? Of course not, ... They want to tone the party down before something gets broken or damaged, or worse, before someone gets hurt. It's similar to a marathon: if you pace yourself properly you can get to the end without overexertion. That is what the Fed is trying to do here.

There's a general consensus out there that rates are headed higher in the U.S. and Europe, but there's apprehension about it anyway, ... That affecting the euro and that's affecting the bond market.

There's little doubt out there that Greenspan will move this time around and try to put the brakes on growth a bit. The question is whether this is a one-time deal or a continuation of a series of moves meant to really keep the economy in line.

The trend is improving in manufacturing as businesses pick up the pace of spending on equipment, so we're looking for continued expansion in the factory sector.

Is there a risk the Fed has tightened too much? Not with the kind of momentum we're seeing in the economy and not with consumer confidence at record highs. People are wealthier, real incomes are growing, the housing market, while slower, is still super strong and the labor market is still super tight. I don't think the Fed is finished just yet.

Despite the fact that energy prices are creeping up and housing continues to crumble, surveys suggest job gains are providing an offset for confidence. The potential is there for consumer spending to remain resilient.

As far as the Fed goes, it really isn't inflation on the ground that's a concern, it's inflation down the road. For a very long time, they've offset that with global concerns, but there doesn't appear to be any more world crises to worry about.

There wasn't all that much of a surprise there. Clearly the risk is still there for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

It's not so much GM, but it could have been one of the proverbial straws that broke consumers' backs. All of a sudden people have to pay more for energy, debt service, healthcare, and save more for retirement.

It's only a matter of time though before the consumer succumbs to weakening housing and higher gas prices, and I think we'll see that by the third quarter.

Consumers may be wobbly, owing to high energy prices, a vulnerable housing sector and increasingly uncertain medical and pension benefits, but there is nothing like the whiff of solid job growth to keep them on their feet.

The big news will be the G-7. If the markets get a sense that there's somebody out there who will do something to prevent the dollar from falling further, I think people will be relieved.

The Bank of Japan is taking a little step towards trying some remedies, ... now appears to be more conducive to helping them.

That's certainly going to be the critical number. A number indicating employment growth, particularly increases in wages, could prompt the Fed to move by the end of this month.

The fact that we've had some decent growth, as long as it isn't associated with inflation risk, is generally good for equity markets. But we did see that wage pressure remains elevated. From that perspective, (the report) is neutral.

the Fed is going to want to take the more cautious road. Two months is an awful long time to wait to react to evidence, particularly if that evidence indicates the economy is starting to heat up again.

The Canadian currency is considered a commodity currency. When commodities prices are up, investors tend to have exposure to the currency.

Inflation is not a problem right now; that is not really what the Fed is paying attention to.

Claims are pointing to firm, if not firming, conditions in the labor market. Corporate profits are just huge and businesses are in a position to expand.

I'd thought they wouldn't want to sort of venture there again, given that all is not perfect on the commodity price front,

All is not quiet on the inflation front. Commodity prices and capacity constraints still pose some inflation risks.

The dollar-yen relationship is still the forefront issue in most people's minds. There's a fear for both stocks and bonds that if the depreciation continues there will be less appeal for U.S. dollar-denominated assets.

The construction sector continues to be a contributor to Canadian economic growth, which should make the Bank of Canada feel a bit more comfortable about any forthcoming rate hikes.

all the pieces of evidence, all the statements that have been reviewed, all the witnesses that have been spoken to.

The market is concerned about not if, but how much over the course of the year the Fed will move. There's been a lot of discussion about more than one rate increase, which is what's concerning the markets.