Sung Sohn Quotations

The point is that mounting layoffs and weak consumer confidence will keep consumer spending fairly weak.

Until and unless there are significant increases in jobs over a period, tighter monetary policy is out of the question.

We've been able to have our cake and eat it too -- satisfy our demand for goods and services and at lower prices,

We're going to get an economic boost from not only production, but from inventory buildup during the current quarter, and probably for the balance of this year.

What's lacking is confidence, so businesses aren't spending the money they have, ... That's why I don't necessarily think it takes a huge fiscal stimulus package to get the economy moving.

Unless the labor market gains some steam and momentum, both real income and confidence of consumers would be hurt.

We're still losing jobs, but the rate of loss is expected to slow, ... That, hopefully, will be viewed that the economy is starting to improve.

We're looking for the wording of the Fed's statement to change in an encouraging direction. The economic numbers would argue for more optimism than caution at this point, ... My expectation is that this economy will be sizzling in the third quarter and hopefully in the fourth quarter, and that should lead to more jobs.

We have probably hit the bottom in inventory liquidation, and hopefully we are actually now rebuilding inventory,

We have a situation where the baton of economic growth needs to pass from consumers to businesses, but that hasn't happened yet,

My concern is that inventories are so low, some businesses will actually miss sales through stock-outs.

More and more jobs, both manufacturing and service jobs are sent overseas; these jobs won't come back any time soon.

Maybe the stock market bottomed on Sept. 21 and maybe the economy did the same.

Right now I've taken (a stimulus package) out of my economic outlook, but there is still a chance that it will pass.

One of the biggest economic uncertainties is whether the ongoing layoffs will mushroom and spread,

If they don't deliver, we could see a sharp sell-off in markets and a drop in consumer confidence,

If they keep the word, the financial markets will like that, because the Fed has put itself in a self-imposed box. If they discard the word measured, they'll be saying they're free to do what they want.

If this gets out of control all of Latin America could suffer. When Brazil sneezes, the rest of Latin America catches a cold.

Businesses have regained confidence in the sustainability of this economic expansion and have started to hire people in earnest. Employers are trying to boost employment by adding more workers, not more hours per worker.

Businesses are going to be waiting and seeing. The most important factor is how consumers behave, ... The cost of capital is important, but in the final analysis, you've got to sell products. If you're not going to sell products, you're not going to need capacity.

Business spending is the Achilles heel of the economy, ... The economic baton needs to pass from consumers to businesses.

But give people more information, and we can incorporate it into our thinking process. We can attach and assign probabilities and then more or less go on with our normal lives. I think that's exactly what's unfolding.

If the economy turns up by next spring, we should see housing doing better by then, ... Between now and the end of the year will be the worst period for housing.

If the economy does not move out of the soft patch, monetary policy could be on hold beginning September until the economy shows signs of renewed strength.

If oil goes to $50 a barrel, I think we're talking about 3 percent economic growth, rather than 4 percent growth, possibly. And the jobless rate could actually go up, not down, because the long-term potential economic growth rate is actually 3.5 percent -- we could actually be falling below potential.

Had this report showed another plunge in confidence, then I think it would have been a sure bet to expect another cut sometime in April,

Historically, economic and political crises have been buying opportunities. Looking at 17 crises, ranging from President Wilson's nervous breakdown to the Gulf War, the stock market setback generally has been a short-term matter lasting no more than a few months.

Greenspan has to make sure the labor market has improved on a continuing basis before he can even think about hiking interest rates. For example, in 1992, he waited 17 months after the peak of the unemployment rate before hiking interest rates.

It boils down to housing affordability; mortgage rates have risen, but they're still historically very low, ... We're continuing to see people who had been sitting on the fence jumping in to take advantage of these low rates before they go back up.

It clearly tells us that consumers have and will continue to sustain and support economic growth, ... Consumers have really been the backbone of current economic growth and will continue to be a stabilizer for the balance of this year.

I think the Fed is pretty much done for this economic cycle, unless some major catastrophe develops, such as a messy war in the Middle East or a housing bubble bursting.

I think we should know about candidates' desires and views, but I think it would be a mistake to assume that they will become reality.

I think the aggressive expectations of the market are not going to be met.

Our research shows the jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... They have almost perfect correlation.

Manufacturing could be a key driver of economic growth in the future, as opposed to being a big drag as we've seen in the past, ... Even employment, which has been weak, should be coming around as demand continues to pick up steam.

We notice it every day -- when we go to gasoline stations, we pay more,

Without a doubt, there will be a contraction in the third quarter's GDP of approximately 0.9 percent, ... Given the slow start in October, the most likely scenario calls for a larger contraction in the 2.8-percent range in the fourth quarter.

The problem is the bottleneck. The industry simply is not able to process the applications fast enough. They (homeowners) are trying to refinance...But the increase in demand will simply increase the waiting list.

Two weeks ago traders thought there was no chance. If you had asked me Thursday, I would have said less than a 50 percent chance (of a December hike), at best I would have said a 50-50 chance. Now it looks pretty likely.

The pause in economic growth and the drop in confidence will probably cause the Fed to tighten later rather than sooner. The earliest I can see them tightening is the end of June, and they could quite possibly wait until August.

This scenario is highly unlikely, but can't be ruled out. The best outcome is a gradual and orderly fall in the value of the dollar improving the trade balance; this is in fact what has been happening.

The rate cut could be temporary, but in these times of crisis, I think it's not inappropriate,

The expectation is that the NAPM numbers should continue to improve and that the manufacturing recession is hopefully going away.

This summer's energy shock will cascade through the economy. A brutal winter heating season can't be ruled out. Detroit is losing steam,

This report is a slow boat to China, reflecting continuing business caution about hiring people. Facing unprecedented competition from both domestic and foreign sources, businesses are still focused on productivity gains with as few employees as possible.

We knew the data collected after the attack was going to be weak, but I was a little dumbfounded by the fact that the numbers even before the attack were awfully weak, ... Even before the attack, the economy seems to have relapsed into the doldrums.

To me, the key indicator is employment. We need to see at least three months of pretty hefty increases in employment before we'll be able to say we're out of woods,

This time around, my guess is that the lead may end up being shorter than the historic average, ... I wouldn't rule out the possibility of the stock market being an almost coincident indicator.

Without the terrorist attacks, we would be experiencing economic recovery in this quarter.

The problem is that the stock market tends to predict downturns or upturns too early. The common joke is that the stock market predicted 11 out of the last 9 recessions.

This really was the nail in the coffin for the Aug. 24 meeting. I think it implies interest rates will go up faster in the future.

This really was the nail in the coffin for the Aug. 24 meeting, ... I think it implies interest rates will go up faster in the future.

This shows manufacturing continues to get deeper into recession,

There is no reason for the Fed to deviate away from the cautious policy approach, ... The central bank won't raise the interest rate until August or later.

This was a temporary pause, which has already been reversed in the month of September,

Washington will pump massive amounts of aid into the Katrina-affected areas boosting economic activities.

Both consumer and business confidence is depressed because of uncertainty surrounding the war, ... If we can somehow bring closure to the war situation, I would expect confidence to improve dramatically, taking with it the economy and the stock market.

Corporate profits are likely to rise at double-digit rates in the second half of the year. And that will be hopefully enough to offset some of the negative psychology in the stock market -- assuming it doesn't get worse.

Customers we talk to are saying they're going to respond to increasing demand, but they won't do anything in anticipation of increasing demand, ... That's why employment, inventories and manufacturing will move in positive directions, but I don't think it will be anything spectacular.

Crowding out could become a distinct possibility in the future, pushing up interest rates significantly in 2005 and beyond,

Argentina is not a potential nightmare. It's a relatively small economy compared to Mexico and Brazil.

Employment gains really haven't come from full-time workers. They're coming primarily from part-time, temporary help, ... Businesses are still trying to maintain flexibility by not hiring more expensive, full-time workers. That might be one of the reasons why we're seeing an increase in continued claims.

Employment gains are rising at a slower rate, retail sales are decelerating somewhat, the stock market is going through some turmoil and the Middle East situation is also probably having a dampening impact on consumers' willingness to spend, ... So I think the Michigan confidence report is consistent with an overall picture in which consumers are doing well, but probably taking a breather for a while.

Even before the attack, the economy seems to have relapsed into the doldrums,

There's so much liquidity in the economy right now that, left alone, it could become fuel for inflation, ... I can see the Fed taking preventive measures to ensure inflation doesn't become a problem.

The third cylinder of economic growth is beginning to fire, ... The other two cylinders are inventory swings and consumer spending. Outside of telecommunications and airplanes, business capital spending has begun to improve already, beginning in the first quarter.

Probably the overall (CPI) number will be somewhat higher than anticipated, but like PPI, the core-number should be close to forecasts,

A slight decline should not change the picture that much, ... If you look at the fundamentals, despite all the negative news, consumers are in pretty good shape. The jobless rate is pretty low, and their net worth is going up because house prices going up.

That's why confidence is important. If it remains healthy, gains in sales will be high enough to offset the negatives coming from job cuts. It's a tug-of-war; right now, job cuts are winning.

This is a terrible number. The economic recovery is almost three years old, and the economy should be producing 200,000 to 300,000 jobs per month.

This cut ... won't do much good to perk up economic growth, ... Now, bond yields should be trending up. The Achilles' heel of the economy, business spending, won't be affected much by this cut.

This economic indicator continues the string of statistical signs supporting the current Federal Reserve stance, ... The recovery seems to continue, but it is still too weak to generate sufficient payroll growth for inflationary pressure.

This is what economists call a simultaneous process, meaning that it works both ways.

It was a very balanced statement. Given the current fragile state of the stock market and the economy, they wanted to do nothing which might add to volatility, so they decided to say as little as possible.

It will have some positive effect, but I don't think there's a strong conviction the stock market rally is going to be sustained. No one is really cashing it in and beginning to spend more money.

It is unclear how much financial infrastructure has been damaged, ... At least temporarily, the financial system could be frozen, further damaging the economy.

It's not necessarily a negative, from the point of view of economic growth, ... Even in Washington, D.C., the government work will be made up.

Foreign investors are becoming a bit more gun shy about buying U.S. assets. Until the dollar settles down, we are going to be looking at volatility in the foreign exchange markets.

For every 10-percent appreciation in the dollar, it cuts inflation by one full percentage point, assuming the strength of the dollar is sustained,

For a while, everybody thought there would be no increase until year-end. They may hike rates sooner than we realize.

It's going to be very close to zero.

It's quite possible the Fed will have to turn around and raise rates.

It's pretty clear that all the pieces for capital spending are in place, including rising sales, lower inventories and increases in shipments and orders, ... So, despite what CEOs say in public, there's no question that capital spending -- outside of aircraft and telecommunications -- has bottomed and is on the way up.

Dollar depreciation is good assuming it is taking place in an orderly manner. The concern is any precipitous plunge. If that were to happen the Fed would have to raise rates significantly.

Consumers are not on a spending spree, but they continue to spend,

Consumer demand has been tapped out, so we won't see a major thrust there, ... We're really counting on this replacement demand, especially in the high-tech area.

Construction spending is always a lagging economic indicator, especially in commercial construction, because of the time it takes to plan, execute and build. I expect housing to be a stabilizer, but commercial construction to be a drag on economic growth for a while to come.

Even with significant employment gains, the central bank wants to see more inflation and pricing power. The fall election is another hurdle. No hike in the interest rate is likely in 2004.

That's one of the reasons why consumers are not going on a spending spree, though they're keeping the economic ship afloat. When higher unemployment numbers come out, that will probably rattle consumer confidence a bit.

The bedrock of consumer spending and confidence is employment. The expectations of more jobs has boosted consumer confidence.

Once the Fed starts raising rates, I suspect they might go up more rapidly than a lot of people realize. Many of us think the Fed will do things slowly and gradually. In fact, they usually do things pretty quickly.

Once the employment picture stabilizes, around midyear, we should see a more rapid and sustained recovery in consumer confidence.

The corporate tax cuts may not have an economic impact until months later.

I'm not bullish on the holiday shopping season, but I'm not as bearish as some people have been.

Inflation is not an issue right now. However, it could be in the future. The Fed will begin to worry about inflation because monetary policy affects the inflation rate with a lag of as much as 18 months to two years, so they need to worry about it now.

Immediately after the terror attacks, we were shell-shocked and stopped doing everything but watching television,

I'm not sure we will see a big revision in February; I won't be surprised if we do not.

If prices remain where they are, and the rest of the economy performs well, that won't be the end of the world,

In the summertime, we have a lot of plant shutdowns, especially in the auto industry. Despite that, we saw a drop in initial claims, ... That's indicating that the employment market has not only stabilized, but has begun to improve slightly.

Inventories really being run down to ground, but that means that any increase in demand in the future will be translated into more production and jobs. We're feeling the pain right now, but it means we're more likely to get economic growth starting early next year.