Tomoko Fujii Quotations

Yen buying seems to be stalling after an initial round of optimism about the Sept. 11 election receded.

Short-term rate expectations remain the single most important factor for dollar/yen,

Mr. Koizumi remains willing to pursue structural reforms, so long as the economy permits. He's not going to abandon reforms. However, realistically it's also difficult to assume very quick progress.

He hasn't done any reforms yet, so they would like to see the results.

Good economic figures will surely be euro supportive. The euro-zone economy is expanding faster than expected.

Japanese institutional investors seem to have sought returns by selling dollar-denominated assets. That kind of repatriation is generally yen positive.

Some market participants are beginning to be concerned about the risks of an earlier rate hike.

Expectations of further Fed rate increases haven't peaked yet, while rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are a long way off. Along with Japanese investors continuing enthusiasm for overseas assets, that will likely push up the dollar in coming weeks.

We cannot expect a grand coalition to undertake bold and speedy reforms, especially of the labor market and tax system. The euro looks weak now.

We cannot expect a 'grand coalition' to undertake bold and speedy reforms, especially of the labor market and tax system. The euro looks weak now.

The trade surplus figures showed strong exports and domestic demand. This shows the economy is robust enough to withstand a rate increase later this year, supporting the yen.

It would be quite market-moving if the second-quarter GDP data comes in above consensus.

Pressure on China to revalue against the dollar leads other Asian currencies, including the Japanese yen, to strengthen against the U.S. currency.

At least for the next half a year the situation is likely to remain tough.

It's a very gloomy picture. We can reasonably expect a very weak economic picture for the first and second quarter.

Everyone is waiting for an end to the tightening cycle, so that's why the dollar is vulnerable.

In general reducing the public debt will require drastic public sector reform. To implement drastic reforms, Koizumi needs to gain public support.

In the near term the economic outlook is still quiet bleak.

The euro has upside risk should economic data such as German retail sales give the market a surprise.

The figures are not so bad and modestly yen positive. The Bank of Japan is on a solid track toward a policy shift this April.

The markets have already priced in at least one rate hike and are beginning to price in the second rate hike by year-end. Combined with the steady recovery of the Japanese economy, those expectations are likely to push up the yen.