The potential supply disruption risk premium has already been built into the price and because there really is no immediate threat to supply ... prices are correcting downwards.
Working together in a joint venture... is always challenging. Here you're combining different cultures, political systems and both are after some prize assets.
Vehicle sales growth has been dramatic compared to last year. This suggests that the future demand for oil products will remain strong.
The OPEC suggestion that they would not cut production targets has had a calming effect on the market.
There is certainly the possibility (of prices hitting USD70). The recent events have attracted speculators and oil has become a lot like an investment.
There is certainly the possibility (of prices hitting 70 dollars). The recent events have attracted speculators and oil has become a lot like an investment.
Louisiana refineries can process that, but they are shut down.
Short term events like this which are unpredictable can drive a high price floor for crude prices. That is why we are seeing pricing in the high 50s even though the market is well supplied.
Natural gas pricing is an immediate telltale sign of the winter situation: it is fairly mild, and this is likely to impact heating oil and crude demand as well.
Natural gas is shooting off the charts. We are entering into winter and refineries need to build up heating oil inventories but its a problem when storms keep key facilities shut.
Nobody knows what to expect next. That's why the crude market is apprehensive.
Nigeria and Iran are the main driving concerns.
Because of this, there is concern of a potential disruption in gasoline supplies due to this switch-over.
I expect the market to be down today but continued concerns of winter season supply will put a high floor in prices.
If it's cold, you need to turn on the heating. It's not like gasoline, which you can conserve.
We can expect an overall high floor in prices this week.
There is no fundamental reason driving prices back up. Market participants felt that the 60 dollar level is an important mark and dropping below 60 is too much of a fall.
What is driving the market are two issues.
Here's the concern. We're heading into the last quarter of the year, the winter peak demand season. Energy costs for consumers and industries certainly will be high.
It is a correction. Oil is rebounding because the market felt it was oversold.
Overall pricing is still high... but it's not going to surge to 70 or beyond just yet.
State-owned enterprises have perhaps more options than international oil companies. Without shareholders, they can go places that might not be politically acceptable.
Some of the commodity investors went back into the market with the Iranian issue still looming as a worry.
It forces the oil refineries to subsidize fuel so consumers in China don't feel much of the pain of high energy prices.
Today the market seems to adjusting downward because all the upward surge over the past few days was a little overdone.
There is momentum for a retreat in the oil pricing as the focus of the market is on the bearish fundamentals.
With all these events in the Middle East, prices hit the psychological level of 70 (dollars) and settled above it.
This reduces fears about an Iranian crude supply cut and the market is just reacting to that.
Expect volatility in the short term and the market will attempt to react to news with an upward bias.
But then the storm reloaded over the weekend, gained strength and set on a path toward the oil facilities, ... The people who sold on Friday are probably kicking themselves now.
What's driving the market right now is geo-political concerns. One concern is the situation in Nigeria.
What the market has found is that the $68-level has a rather strong resistance, and so the contract is now retreating slightly on profit taking.
The pullback appears to be due to profit-taking, which is not surprising considering prices have really surged in the past few days. The decline will not be large because the Iranian issue is keeping a high floor under prices.
With lingering concerns over Iran, Nigeria ... the market is correcting upwards because it is focusing on fears in the geo- political realm.
Besides the fundamental supply and demand information, prices are driven by the emotional momentum of the Iranian issue.
Even if there's available crude for release, if there's no refining capacity that they can use, what good is that?
Between now and when the U.N. Security Council actually takes up the issue there will be some saber-rattling, but in the near term traders know there won't be any disruption to supply from it.
At the end of the day, physical asset acquisition is going to give banks more leverage over their trading positions.
Cuts in exports of oil will spark off geo-political fears that will make traders think twice about selling. Traders don't want to be caught short.
Crude inventory went up and the market is concerned about the continuing gasoline stock draw in the US market and the peak summer driving season that starts in late May.
There's not a whole lot of movement in the market today. I think the crude market will watch for the two meetings this week.
The traders are simply taking profits. They want to lock-in their gains before the inventory report comes out on Wednesday.
These elements will keep attracting speculative elements into the market and keep a high floor for crude.
The threat to supply disruption is keeping traders edgy.
Perhaps one could surmise that they wanted the listed company to be more independent and decide what to buy on their own rather than becoming an arm of a state-owned company.
Once the psychological level of 70 dollars was breached, there was momentum which spurred fresh buying. Passing the 70.85 dollar level is inevitable.
Any decisions on sanctions will not be in the near future because two members on the council with veto power, China and Russia, have rather strong economic ties with Iran.
The bulls are back in the market with just a little bit of cold weather.
A lot of the price rise is due to geopolitical concerns fuelling speculative interest.
A lot of uncertainty remains in how the Iranian situation will work itself out. There is some concern in the Asian market on whether Iran is a reliable supplier.
They must have worked out some agreement between them to resolve the pricing dispute.
This morning the price crept upwards so the market continues to be driven by the short-term geopolitical (pressures) primarily in Nigeria.
This morning the market is continuing its momentum ... from the response to the inventory report from the US.
The release of crude out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not as critical as making sure that there is enough refined product supply and that there are refineries to process the crude.
There's a lot of market talk about whether we're going to hit the psychological 65 dollars a barrel mark or even 70 dollars in the near future. I think it will depend on how the geopolitical problems are played out.
It is part of China's efforts to avoid becoming too reliant on any one energy type and to diversify sources of supply,
It's a little pullback from the record last Friday.
It's not only the suspension of production that's causing concern, it's the fact that we could see potential damage to the platforms, which would cause longer disruptions to production.
It's the geopolitical fear factor that's driving the market now,
It looks like the perfect storm to drive prices up.
It's possible that as the summer driving season gets closer, just like last year, traders will focus more and more on products.
The bin Laden tape has caused a knee-jerk reaction on the part of the market.
It's reacting to the US energy department report.
If you have a portion of your power requirement generated by nuclear, there is less of a need for other types of fuel.
In the short-term, it is all about geopolitical drama.
In the next few days, depending on how the geopolitical problems play out, it is possible the market would correct as players take profits, ... But for now, we certainly are in uncharted territory.
In the past few weeks, right before the announcement of the inventory report the market generally comes down.
Iran individually can't raise prices ... whether Iran will respond to sanctions with an oil embargo may lead to a spike in prices. But I don't think it will occur because it will affect oil revenue to Iran.
Because the surge in prices last week was so strong, inevitably there is profit-taking.
Gasoline inventories in the U.S. continue to be an issue in the market because last week's inventory report showed a stock decline as we approach the summer driving season.
Geopolitics is behind the surge in oil pricing... The Nigerian unrest has caused a disruption in supply.
Geo-politics is behind the surge in oil pricing... The Nigerian unrest has caused a disruption in supply.
The market expects the DoE report to show a build up of US inventories across the board.
The market expects that one snowstorm is not going to change the bearish (negative) inventory (data) in the US.
The tropical depression is certainly within the radar screens of traders, though it seems to be too early to tell whether it would develop into a storm, and its direction.
The general market expectation is that OPEC will not change the quotas.
The geo-political risk premium and how it fluctuates is a key driver in the price of oil. Since the time Saudi Arabia objected to Iran's call to cut output and promised to provide more oil, the risk premium has declined.
The geopolitical drama over Iran and Nigeria is sending oil prices upwards. But Nigeria is more problematic in the short term, because it has actually disrupted supply.
The geopolitical drama over Iran and Nigeria is sending oil prices upwards.
The downward close on Thursday was due to the warmer weather forecast ... and today the market is correcting (that) so it's gone back up a little.
The fundamentals are quite bearish ... the inventory data ... essentially confirmed that the market is (well) supplied with product.
The fundamentals are quite bearish (negative for prices) ... the (US) inventory data ... essentially confirmed that the market is supplied with product.
The current Iranian developments, though they will not cause any immediate disruption to oil supply, have caused some anxiety on the part of traders.
The crude oil that is going to be supplied is the heavy, sour kind, and there is not much refining capacity for that. Louisiana refineries can process that, but they are shut down.
The market is well supplied with both crude and products.
The market is showing signs of upward buying and is really extending gains from last week. The focus is on the supply disruption, primarily out of Nigeria.
The market is reacting to the tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico which could affect platforms and refineries,
The market is reacting to some rhetoric regarding the Iranian situation.
The market is on edge; it's looking for directions. There's a lot of volatility now, which is characteristic of a tight supply situation.
The market is holding its breath, waiting for the inventory figures.
The market is focused on the fact that the market is well supplied - both in products and in crude - while the Iranian situation stays in the background.