There's a risk the statement will be watered down. This will be negative for interest rates, the yield gap will narrow further, and the Australian dollar will go down.
The Australian dollar's downward trend is still in place. From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar has failed to break 75.80 cents, which would have otherwise signaled the end of its downward trend.
The Australian dollar could head higher this week. The CPI will be on the strong side, so we might get some interest rate-expectations creep in.
From a technical perspective the Australian dollar has failed to break 75.80 cents, which would have otherwise signaled the end of its downward trend. The Australian dollar's downward trend is still in place.
I'd buy the Australian dollar next week. The data could continue to be stronger, which will generate a rally.
The safer bet is to assume the Australian dollar will decline and begin to trend lower. Because 75.80 cents has held so well for the last few months, people are paying attention to this key technical level.
Markets may start pricing in some stronger data as there's a risk industrial production is better than expected. People will start buying the dollar ahead of it.
The U.S. dollar trend is going to rise through the end of the first quarter of 2006. Until it becomes clear the Fed is finished tightening rates, I don't think we will see a change in the trend.