The still-massive swing in the pace of stockpiling in the second quarter sets the stage for an explosive third quarter.
While housing demand will probably continue to moderate from the torrid pace seen in the last few years, housing starts should remain well-supported in the coming months, as builders' backlogs remain near record levels and rebuilding along the Gulf Coast will eventually boost activity.
Barring an abrupt weakening in the economy, the Fed will continue to hike rates at a measured pace for the foreseeable future.
The Fed can not be comfortable with the pace at which the labor market is moving to/through full employment. Let the wage acceleration begin!
The economy is still growing at an above trend pace and with slack in labor and product markets all but fully absorbed, inflation pressures will begin to gradually build this year.
January auto sales were clearly much better than expected. We are on a pace to see a month-to-month increase in the seasonally adjusted sales pace, perhaps to around 17.7 million units or so.