Steven Wood Growth Quotations

Weakness in the composite index suggests that economic growth will slow over the next three to six months.

This will help boost overall economic growth to above 4 percent; our current (third-quarter) estimate is 4.5.

With employment gains non-existent, income growth has slowed. As households also become more judicious in taking on more debt, consumer spending will remain soft.

The recent pace of growth in the leaders suggests that economic growth should slow from its 3.6 percent over the four quarters through the third quarter of 2005.

The recent movements in the index suggest only moderate economic growth over the next 6 to 9 months.

The strong historical relationship between the level of the help-wanted index and the year-on-year growth of payroll employment has broken down completely.

The signals in the manufacturing sector have become quite mixed. The diffusion indices suggest a slowing pace of growth while the factory and durable goods reports indicate an acceleration. In the past, when this type of divergence has occurred, the diffusion indices have usually been the better indicator.

Despite this gain the outlook is still for sluggish growth over the next six months,

Despite the strength during the quarter, the period ended on a much weaker note, suggesting (second-quarter) growth is likely to be weaker. These data are unlikely to sway the (Fed) from easing again at (its) May 15th meeting.

Although the level of sales is still relatively high, the solid growth of the past three years has been arrested, helping the Fed's efforts to slow the pace of economic growth. However, mortgage rates have declined over the last six weeks, so further substantial weakness may not be forthcoming.

Although the (Fed) will not be pleased with the sharp decline in productivity growth over the past year, they will view it as a cyclical phenomenon rather than a retreat from the productivity-led expansion of the past 5 years.

It's unclear whether the declines are related to year-end concerns or to a more general softening in manufacturing activity, but they do add evidence to the (Fed's) forecast for slower growth going forward.

Slower output and employment growth is dampening real income gains, which in turn is slowing spending, ... Although the monthly data continue to be quite volatile during this transition period, the underlying trends are unmistakable -- the economy is slowing from its torrid pace.

The Fed will welcome this report as it suggests that slower economic growth will be extended into the third quarter. The probability of an August rate increase continues to diminish and is now below 50 percent.

The (Fed policy makers) will welcome this data as providing further confirmation that the slowing of economic growth in Q2 (the second quarter) has been extended into Q3,

Importantly for the Fed, the pace of real consumer spending slowed in March, and combined with early forecasts for lower vehicle and retail sales for April, suggests there is some scope for slower growth in the second quarter,

Inventories are going to be largely neutral for economic growth in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, as businesses ramp up production to rebuild inventories, that will mean more hiring, more production and a stronger economic environment.

Higher claims suggest slower job gains, which should dampen income growth, consumer spending, and overall economic activity.

Housing fundamentals are deteriorating. Mortgage rates have been flat since the beginning of the year. Job creation and income growth has slowed. Equity markets have plunged over the past year. And consumer confidence has tumbled. Moreover, mortgage applications have trailed off. All of these suggest that home sales should weaken over the next several months.

Housing fundamentals are deteriorating, ... Mortgage rates have been flat since the beginning of the year. Job creation and income growth has slowed. Equity markets have plunged over the past year. And consumer confidence has tumbled. Moreover, mortgage applications have trailed off. All of these suggest that home sales should weaken over the next several months.

Housing activity, which has contributed significantly to economic growth over the past 2-1/2 years, has now passed its peak and will be largely neutral to negative over the next several quarters, ... This slowdown will be welcomed at the Federal Reserve.

The general slowing in the growth of the leading indicators over the past year suggests the pace of economic growth should gradually slow over the next three to six to nine months.

The gentle slowing trend that had been in place for much of 2005 appears to have been halted and partially reversed. However, like many other economic relationships, the one between the index of leading indicators and subsequent economic growth has loosened significantly in recent years.