Steven Wood Labor Quotations

New claims during the survey week are broadly similar to where they have been for the last two months, when payrolls fell, ... Continuing claims have been ratcheting steadily higher. Labor market weakness remains.

New and continuing claims are at levels that historically have been associated with payroll employment gains of around 225,000. Labor markets are gradually improving.

Labor markets are very strong and payroll employment should rise by 200,000 or more in February. The Federal Open Market Committee will continue to raise interest rates.

Labor markets are deteriorating rapidly. Layoffs remain at a fast pace, while hiring has all but stopped. As economic activity continues to unravel, there are few prospects for a near-term turnaround. The national unemployment rate, now at 4.9 percent, should breach 6 percent before the economy begins to recover.

Labor markets are deteriorating quickly in the wake of the terrorist attacks on September 11. The economy was quite weak before the attacks, which have accelerated the pace of layoffs. As layoffs spiral higher, hiring activity has stopped, giving a strong upward push to joblessness.

Most measures of the labor market indicate that the degree of slack is slowly disappearing.

While good gains in productivity are economically favorable, it is not a good situation when this occurs because labor input is declining more rapidly than output.

While these data will be welcome by the (Fed), two key questions remain. Will the second quarter spending slow down extend through the rest of the year? Economic fundamentals suggest they will. And will the spending slowdown be sufficient to relieve pressure on labor markets and inflation? At this point, that is still an open question.

While these data will be welcome by the (Fed), two key questions remain, ... Will the second quarter spending slow down extend through the rest of the year? Economic fundamentals suggest they will. And will the spending slowdown be sufficient to relieve pressure on labor markets and inflation? At this point, that is still an open question.

With last week's Fed tightening, mortgage rates have continued to rise, so that further declines in housing activity are likely over the balance of the year. Nevertheless, robust labor markets and rising incomes have helped sustain housing at a relatively high level.

Even as the pace of layoffs has ebbed, no new hiring is taking place, so continuing claims will rise even further and surpass their peak in the last recession. Labor market deterioration is continuing with no end in sight.

These data indicate that the deterioration in the labor market has not been halted. Therefore, the slowing in the broad economy has likely not been halted either.

After adjusting for the storm effects, both initial and continuing claims appear to be near their pre-hurricane levels, indicating that labor markets remain strong despite the weak October payroll employment report.

Despite the loosening of the labor markets, income gains remain sufficient to support spending at a moderate pace.

Despite a robust economy and tight labor markets, inflation is still low and steady. These data provide some relief for the Federal Open Market Committee.