Sung Sohn Rate Quotations

There is no reason for the Fed to deviate away from the cautious policy approach, ... The central bank won't raise the interest rate until August or later.

The loss of confidence in the financial reporting of Corporate America could hurt both consumer and business spending, ... The reduced availability and higher cost of credit, as well as the desire to strengthen the balance sheet, could cause firms to postpone capital spending plans and accelerate layoffs.

The jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... The Fed keeps cutting rates as long as the jobless rate goes up. This time around is really no exception.

This economic indicator continues the string of statistical signs supporting the current Federal Reserve stance, ... The recovery seems to continue, but it is still too weak to generate sufficient payroll growth for inflationary pressure.

The corporate tax cuts may not have an economic impact until months later.

A slight decline should not change the picture that much, ... If you look at the fundamentals, despite all the negative news, consumers are in pretty good shape. The jobless rate is pretty low, and their net worth is going up because house prices going up.

We're still losing jobs, but the rate of loss is expected to slow, ... That, hopefully, will be viewed that the economy is starting to improve.

The rate cut could be temporary, but in these times of crisis, I think it's not inappropriate,

If oil goes to $50 a barrel, I think we're talking about 3 percent economic growth, rather than 4 percent growth, possibly. And the jobless rate could actually go up, not down, because the long-term potential economic growth rate is actually 3.5 percent -- we could actually be falling below potential.

Crowding out could become a distinct possibility in the future, pushing up interest rates significantly in 2005 and beyond,

For a while, everybody thought there would be no increase until year-end. They may hike rates sooner than we realize.

Inflation is not an issue right now. However, it could be in the future. The Fed will begin to worry about inflation because monetary policy affects the inflation rate with a lag of as much as 18 months to two years, so they need to worry about it now.

Our research shows the jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... They have almost perfect correlation.

Corporate profits are likely to rise at double-digit rates in the second half of the year. And that will be hopefully enough to offset some of the negative psychology in the stock market -- assuming it doesn't get worse.

It boils down to housing affordability; mortgage rates have risen, but they're still historically very low, ... We're continuing to see people who had been sitting on the fence jumping in to take advantage of these low rates before they go back up.

Greenspan has to make sure the labor market has improved on a continuing basis before he can even think about hiking interest rates. For example, in 1992, he waited 17 months after the peak of the unemployment rate before hiking interest rates.

The committee members believe that the interest rate is too low, pointing to continuing, gradual increases in the rate. The central bank is reducing accommodation, not tightening monetary policy.

By the time the election is over, the Fed might be in a position to increase rates more aggressively. In 2005, we might see rates going up more than a quarter (percentage point) every other month.

But if things start to go wrong -- if business spending doesn't pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much higher -- then a combination of these factors would really affect the economy going forward.

The central bank runs the risk of raising the interest rate too fast. Historically, the central bank had overreacted to inflationary pressures, contributing to economic recessions.

All the pieces are in place to generate healthy economic growth for the balance of the year, ... But so far, political and economic uncertainties have overshadowed the strengthening in corporate profits.

Even with significant employment gains, the central bank wants to see more inflation and pricing power. The fall election is another hurdle. No hike in the interest rate is likely in 2004.

This really was the nail in the coffin for the Aug. 24 meeting. I think it implies interest rates will go up faster in the future.

This really was the nail in the coffin for the Aug. 24 meeting, ... I think it implies interest rates will go up faster in the future.

Dollar depreciation is good assuming it is taking place in an orderly manner. The concern is any precipitous plunge. If that were to happen the Fed would have to raise rates significantly.