Tim Evans Market Quotations

Really, we've had some focus (on oil) since mid-February, when both markets made a significant low, and both markets had a near retest of those lows on Wednesday. Oil is emerging as the focus for the gold market as a surrogate for general commodity inflation. Without that kind of commodity inflation, then gold becomes a less attractive investment.

The markets are bracing for Thursday's DOE reports, with traders cringing since the recent (supply) trends have been bearish.

The markets are all doing their best spin jobs off the latest round of DOE data, but there were really no significant surprises. The overall economic importance of the data is still bearish.

The market has used considerable energy just to reach this level. We see risk of exhaustion now that it's here.

The market is certainly tightened by this event.

It's staging what I would call a catch-up move. After resisting the upward pull of silver all week long, the market couldn't hold back any more and is making up for lost time here.

The natural-gas market is on a completely different page now, with profit taking on short positions pushing prices higher, despite what are still impressively bearish prospects. This week will be warmer than last week, limiting the extent to which storage might be drawn down.

There still may be ample opportunity for price chopping off storm updates over the balance of the week, but the market is looking considerably more relaxed today.

Despite the surprise 1.3 million-barrel drop in DOE crude stocks for last week, inventories in the market remain near April 1999 highs.

There is nothing close to a physical shortage going on here. Instead, what the market is holding here is a significant, and in fact growing, implied risk premium.

It is pretty clear they were attempting to move this oil into a crude oil market where there was already a surplus.

In the short run, it means more oil drained from the market into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.