Tony Crescenzi Payroll Quotations

I would venture to forecast that if the upcoming payroll report were to post a decline in the vicinity of 200,000 or so, the Fed might lower interest rates as early as this Friday.

Even Clint Eastwood could not have written a better script that would pit the bulls and the bears against each other over the meaning of today's payroll report, ... The winner, however, may not be known for a while longer since the data is sufficiently murky.

It suggests the trend has changed, because each week's estimate is based on the trends. This is clearly an important change, when taken with other news, particularly monthly payroll statistics. It suggests more good news is on the way.

The new rumor now since the meeting, since they did not act, is that the Fed could conduct an inter-meeting rate change, ... This is something they haven't done since April 1994, but people feel if the payroll report is strong and it's accompanied by a high wage gain, the Fed might move as early as tomorrow.