The potential supply disruption risk premium has already been built into the price and because there really is no immediate threat to supply ... prices are correcting downwards.
I expect the market to be down today but continued concerns of winter season supply will put a high floor in prices.
This reduces fears about an Iranian crude supply cut and the market is just reacting to that.
Besides the fundamental supply and demand information, prices are driven by the emotional momentum of the Iranian issue.
Between now and when the U.N. Security Council actually takes up the issue there will be some saber-rattling, but in the near term traders know there won't be any disruption to supply from it.
The threat to supply disruption is keeping traders edgy.
The release of crude out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not as critical as making sure that there is enough refined product supply and that there are refineries to process the crude.
The market is showing signs of upward buying and is really extending gains from last week. The focus is on the supply disruption, primarily out of Nigeria.
The market is on edge; it's looking for directions. There's a lot of volatility now, which is characteristic of a tight supply situation.