Bill Gross Lower Quotations

We're beginning to see some signs that the economy is starting to weaken in the second half of 1998, ... We're going to see 1 to 2 percent growth. If we see those numbers, then we can move down even lower below 5 1/2 percent on the long bond.

If the economy slows down, if housing moves back down, then at some point late in 2006 the Fed starts to lower rates. That's why a 10-year note yield at 4.55 percent is a decent value as opposed to overvalued.

This works because merchants have a high cost of customer acquisition, and we lower it, ... We bring them customers with their wallets open.

Either way, ... we pay the price: higher import costs, a cutback in spending on cheap foreign goods, rising inflation, perhaps chaotic financial markets, a lower standard of living.

So, the lower inflation goes and the more and more investors believe that inflation will stay low, the better it is for the bond market.

At some point down the road, in a dynamic economy such as the U.S., we should be returning to a more normal shape. That means ultimately short rates and the front end of the curve will trade at lower yields than long rates.

If Fed Funds were expected to rise in the future, the curve would be positive with intermediate and long bonds requiring higher yields as a cushion against accelerating short rates. If the Fed were expected to lower rates, a flatter, even inverted curve might result. It's not that this academic theory has been dislodged in recent years but it may have been asked to take a seat next to the increasingly important variable of global financial flows. These flows, no doubt, rely critically on the willingness of foreign investors to hold U.S. assets in the face of potential currency and asset price depreciation.