The primary driver of this slowing is consumer spending. Spending will be hurt by continued elevated energy prices and a slowing in housing.
If the Fed is truly data dependent, then what matters most...is the data flow for the second quarter. What do we know about the second quarter? Well, not that much, but what we do know suggests a slowing to around a 2.5% annual rate.
It's a very strange mix, ... It may signal some kind of slowing, but I think I'd have to see a lot more evidence of that. It doesn't appear that consumer consumption is slowing in any meaningful way.