The question is where to set our sights next. The only cap I see coming up is on the order of $85 a barrel -- something equivalent in real terms to the highest we saw.
At 70 dollars per barrel governments seem prepared to act.
The uncertainty in the Russian tax regime is definitely a problem. In my view however it is not greatly surprising. As barrel prices are far higher than anyone expected to expect these kind of deals - between companies and government - to remain stable isn't really possible.
The crude market and the global economy have been quite willing to pay $60 a barrel without harm. The only thing that has happened is that the economic boom that gave us the fastest economic growth in 25 years has slowed a little bit to bring demand back in line.
The market is reacting today as if oil at less than $74 a barrel is a bargain.
The market is extremely hesitant to go below USD60 a barrel and that is because of the Nigerian outages for the most part.
The market is extremely hesitant to go below $60 a barrel and that is because of the Nigerian outages for the most part.