Ethan Harris Growth Quotations

With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.

It suggests moderate growth in the year ahead, but I don't think there's much risk of a 'double-dip' recession.

The market is getting lulled into sleep here. In reality we think that both the inflation numbers and the growth numbers will keep the pressure on the Fed.

Only with very weak U.S. growth or a major drop in the U.S. dollar will the trade deficit improve on a sustained basis. The reason you need these dramatic movements is that the U.S. has, according to almost every study, an incredible appetite for imports.

The labor market's going to have a long, slow climb. Corporate America is going to use whatever means it can to boost output without hiring. They're going to wait and wait for confirmation that growth is really picking up before they move into serious job hiring.

This is a feel-good report. When you get a strong growth number and a low inflation number, it's hard to get a better combination than that for the economy.

In an ideal world, three simultaneous gradual adjustments would happen. The U.S. eliminates the budget deficit, China revalues by 30 percent and China works to rebalance growth more to consumption and less to exports. Of course none of this will happen and the pressure for protectionism from Congress grows.

We are obviously experiencing slower growth and the payroll numbers don't really reflect that yet, which is why they will be an important indicator. Companies have been cutting back the number of hours their workers put in and in some cases cutting back their workforce altogether, and that is what people will be looking for in the numbers.

Everyone is all zeroed in on the consumer now, but the truth is that the consumer isn't the driver now. Confidence is picking up, but still at average levels. Wage growth is slow and the bulk of the tax cut is already in place. Finally, with all the debt people have taken out over the past several years the burden of paying monthly bills is leaving less for discretionary spending.

This is a sector that should be one of the engines of growth and should keep the economy healthy in the face of the weakening housing market.

Companies have been able to maintain incredible productivity growth for a low-growth economy. It does look like firms are finding ways to use technology and make do with fewer workers.

Because growth is looking good and financial conditions are good, they'll keep moving up. But they're close to the end.

You're not talking about a full-blown business-cycle recovery here, which is something like 6 percent GDP growth for a year. To get that, you'll need the whole economy operating in full-growth mode, and clearly the consumer isn't.

You're going to see continued cost discipline. So when growth comes it won't be spent on things like wage increases, but will flow to the bottom line.

We needed 20 percent economic growth in the third quarter to get rid of all of the excess capacity in the economy. The Fed is still going to be concerned about disinflation.

The national economy usually weathers these storms with relatively minor damage. Second, the hurricane is a 'supply shock' -- a disruption to productive potential -- not a 'demand shock.' The same factors that threaten growth -- higher commodity prices, shipping bottlenecks, reduced local productive capacity -- also threaten inflation.

We knew we would have a very weak number because of a collapse in auto sales after two big months in a row and the incentives kind of stop working ... But if you look at the rest of the report, every single major component was up. It was very broad-based growth across many components.

If job growth is just 50,000 a month, you can be sure that the unemployment rate is going to rise at some point in the coming months.

I think we know corporate profit growth can't stay at the rate we've seen in recent quarters. They (employers) have been squeezing the work force pretty aggressively, squeezing productivity out of workers and holding the line on wages. It's a matter of how much corporate profits slow down.

We are going to get some follow-through, some hiring, but it will be slow. I don't see wage growth coming back in the next year.

Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.

The surplus creates an environment where there's a tremendous amount of saving being freed up for private investment every time the government pays down its debt, that frees funds to flow into private investments. That has created this strong growth economy that we have.

The combination of still-strong growth and rising inflation has prompted a string of hawkish Fed speakers all arguing strenuously for the need to keep inflation contained,

A lot of things have to go right even to get 2.3 percent growth for the year,