Ethan Harris Slow Quotations

I think we know corporate profit growth can't stay at the rate we've seen in recent quarters. They (employers) have been squeezing the work force pretty aggressively, squeezing productivity out of workers and holding the line on wages. It's a matter of how much corporate profits slow down.

Eventually that will slow down the U.S. consumer. We've got the seeds of a slowdown coming out of the housing market, but it hasn't really had that much impact yet on the economy.

Everyone is all zeroed in on the consumer now, but the truth is that the consumer isn't the driver now. Confidence is picking up, but still at average levels. Wage growth is slow and the bulk of the tax cut is already in place. Finally, with all the debt people have taken out over the past several years the burden of paying monthly bills is leaving less for discretionary spending.

It's very likely consumer spending will slow down significantly in coming months.

The labor market's going to have a long, slow climb. Corporate America is going to use whatever means it can to boost output without hiring. They're going to wait and wait for confirmation that growth is really picking up before they move into serious job hiring.

The consumer is already somewhat vulnerable in the year ahead as the tax-cut effects fade. If we continue to see pressure from energy prices, consumer spending is almost sure to slow down some.

Clearly, Corporate America is still in hunker-down mode, reluctant to increase budgets for equipment and slow about increasing employment, ... That puts a weight around the neck of the recovery and keeps it at a moderate pace.

The market has some adjustment to do, but it will be more of a slow leak than a pop.