Another 25 basis point palliative ease in August seems a good bet. But the big easing story is over.
We think Mr. Greenspan is willing to give the data a chance; it will take bad data to force an August rate hike,
It seems likely that these numbers will be seen as significantly increasing the chance of an August rate hike.
There is still a good chance for an August hike, but we are leaning increasingly to September or even November.