Ian Shepherdson Falling Quotations

Manufacturers are still miserable, and output will keep falling for some time, but they can now see light at the end of the tunnel, ... They are working off their excess inventory ... and are now hopeful of stronger orders by the year-end.

This will doubtless shock the markets, and makes an October rate cut more likely, but it does not change the outlook for a near-term recovery, ... Falling employment, rising unemployment lag activity. These numbers reflect the second quarter economic stall.

Unfortunately, at current levels, and coupled with the extraordinarily low level of labor demand, the claims numbers are still consistent with flat or falling payrolls and a rising unemployment rate. There's no real relief in sight here yet.