Ian Shepherdson Good Quotations

Looks to us like tax rebate money is being spent, ... Retailers should have a good autumn.

It is hard to make the case that the inflation threat from import prices is serious. The trend is clearly not as good as in the recent past, but it is not bad enough to cause any problems on its own.

This report does not change the big picture, but it lifts the starting point for growth in both the first quarter and 2003 as a whole; good news,

We think there is a good chance that home sales recover, or at worst stabilize, over the next few months. The starts data are potentially seriously misleading.

With productivity likely to slow a bit further, there is little room for maneuver. In short, good news today but not enough alone to change the outlook.

Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.

The good news is that the expectations index is now more or less in line with the state of the stock market, so any further dips should be modest,

There is still a good chance for an August hike, but we are leaning increasingly to September or even November.

Believe it or not, this is a seriously encouraging report. There is a very good chance the underlying deficit has now peaked.

Another 25 basis point palliative ease in August seems a good bet. But the big easing story is over.

The survey has a good track record and the signal it is sending cannot be welcome at the Fed.

After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02. This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.

After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02, ... This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.

At last some good -- or at least not so bad -- news, ... don't change the overall trade picture, but we think the worst news is over.

It it too soon to be sure, but we think there is a good chance that the industrial sector has now fully adjusted to the summer's steep decline in confidence.

In any event, a single durable good report will have little effect on the Fed.

Clearly good numbers, reinforcing the Fed view that much of the spring rise in inflation was 'transitory' - but good CPI numbers alone will not stop rates rising slowly.

Claims are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate; these data suggest the rate will be nudging 4% by mid-summer.

The headline reflects a 3.2 percent rise in gasoline prices. Natural gas and electricity prices were also much stronger than the PPI suggested. The good news is the 0.1 percent core, which supports the Fed's view that transitory factors have boosted inflation in recent months.

The gains were uneven, however, with small declines in clothing and electronics, a decent 0.7 percent rise for general merchandise and a huge leap for non-store retailers. Provided January holds up -- surveys suggest so far, so good -- the overall holiday season will have been pretty good.