Ian Shepherdson Remain Quotations

By early next year we expect starts to have begun to decline, though activity can probably remain close to current levels for another couple of months,

The only soft spots in the survey remain inventories and employment, but they will recover.

Supply remains tight; buyers may have been unable to find the homes they want where they want them. Housing will not fold.

This is a sign that the committee is beginning to think aloud about shifting to a more neutral position - but the forecast of significantly slower growth will have to come first, ... For now, the elevated headline inflation rate and the tight pool of available labor remain bigger concerns, so the Fed's guard is still up.

We remain relatively optimistic about the housing market, but we do accept that activity fell sharply in the immediate aftermath of Sept. 11,

We remain of the view that the Fed's near-term objective is simply to support the stock market until consumer and business sentiment improves,

The chairman's remarks clearly signal rates will rise this month, though we remain of the view that a November hike is not yet a done deal.

Inventories remain very low and will add to third quarter and fourth quarter growth, too.

If claims remain at their current level, we could expect the unemployment rate to be down to 4 percent or so by mid-summer.

If claims remain anywhere near this week's level, they will send a very strong signal that the labor market is tightening.