Joe Osha Stock Quotations

Given the challenges Intel faces currently with its business model, we think the stock needs to trade on a lower multiple of 2003 earnings to be attractive.

Valuation for the stock appears significantly high for a company with a sustainable earnings growth rate of 10 percent to 15 percent. We have difficulty imagining any second-half recovery that could raise earnings, and investor expectations, to a level sufficient to keep the stock moving up.

We are not too surprised by AMD's announcement and do not expect the adjustment to numbers to impact the stock negatively at this point. Given the fact that AMD's product lineup at the low end of the market is more competitive than Intel's, we expect to see market share gains in the first part of next year.

The reason I am positive on the stock right now is the fact they are pushing into servers, workstations -- the things that are being driven by growth in the Internet. That is a big market that Intel can dominate, I think, pretty quickly.

We think it's likely that the stock will see a short-term rally on relief that the outlook has not deteriorated further, but the absence of bad news does not constitute an argument in support of the stock...we struggle to understand the upbeat consensus outlook for the fourth quarter.

It is very hard to find any evidence of a real end to the upturn that began in late 1998. Although we see little to support semiconductor stock prices during the next two months, we strongly believe that the sector will be hitting new highs before the end of the year.

For now, we're staying with the neutral intermediate-term rating on AMD's stock until we see how the company weathers the Northwood launch. We are still long-term strong buyers of the stock -- even if AMD suffers at the hands of Northwood it will not plunge as deeply into loss as it has during past Intel offensives.