John Canavan Curve Quotations

The story of the week has been the inverted yield curve. It's tough to read too much into the inversion. We may be more firmly inverted tomorrow after the psychological factor sets in. We can have an inverted curve and have it not lead to a recession. It depends on how much the curve becomes inverted and how long it remains there until we can talk about a recession.

The flattening move of the curve has been accelerating. There was some substantial buying of the new 30-year bond and now we're seeing a reversal of that as recent interest has waned. This has caused a quick reversal of the inversion.